Game Recap: CHI 2, PIT 6, January 29, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI2

FinalThu, Jan 29, 2026Every game that night

PIT6

PIT beat CHI 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.86 expected goals to 2.29. PIT outshot CHI 45 to 20. A. Mantha led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. McGroarty had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Silovs stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	0	1	2
PIT	1	4	1	6

1st 9:32CHIC. Murphy0.06 xG
1st 11:24PITC. Dewar0.22 xG
2nd 5:54PITB. Kindel0.14 xG
2nd 15:30PITE. Chinakhov0.19 xG
2nd 16:01PITA. Mantha0.19 xG
2nd 19:30PITR. Shea0.07 xG
3rd 13:59PITC. Dewar0.37 xG
3rd 14:31CHIC. Bedard0.11 xG

Team Stats

CHIPIT

20Shots on goal45

2.29Expected goals4.86

45Shot attempts84

165v5 shots on goal40

0/2Power play0/1

13Hits18

16Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways17

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.29 xGPIT 4.86 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI20 on goal, 2 scored

PIT45 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Nazar	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	2	17:38	1:06
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	-2	0	19:48	3:09
R. Greene	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	-1	0	15:15	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:53	3:07
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	-2	0	18:35	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	18:33	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	18:04	3:08
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	15:44	2:54
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:54	0:50
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:16	0:53
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	10:56	0:51
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:18	0:00
C. Murphy	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	19:34	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-5	0	20:46	3:02
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	19:57	0:58
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:52	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	18:47	0:02
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-5	2	17:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	45	39	6	.867	60:00	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Mantha	RW	1	2	3	3	0	0	+3	0	13:27	0:25
C. Dewar	C	2	0	2	2	4	0	+2	0	14:41	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	2	2	4	1	2	+2	0	13:14	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	2	2	0	0	2	+2	0	13:10	0:00
B. Kindel	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	+3	4	12:35	0:25
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	16:58	1:35
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	15:53	1:35
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:18	1:35
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	6	0	1	-1	0	18:04	1:35
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	15:00	0:25
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	13:10	0:25
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	5	3	1	+3	0	10:36	0:00
R. Shea	D	1	1	2	3	2	0	+3	0	17:51	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	1	3	0	+2	0	20:24	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+3	0	16:51	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+3	0	21:40	1:35
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	0	21:15	0:25
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	20	18	2	.900	59:57	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1J. Dickinson17:46I. Mikheyev16:54T. Bertuzzi14:15

Line 2T. Teravainen15:10F. Nazar16:07C. Bedard16:08

Line 3R. Donato12:57C. Dach10:02O. Moore12:05

Line 4R. Greene13:17A. Burakovsky9:48

Pair 1C. Murphy18:09M. Grzelcyk18:59

Pair 2A. Vlasic17:42L. Crevier17:23

Pair 3A. Levshunov16:28W. Kaiser15:17

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby16:27R. Rakell13:49J. Brazeau12:45

Line 2E. Malkin14:38E. Chinakhov14:15T. Novak13:45

Line 3C. Dewar12:43B. Lizotte11:07N. Acciari11:16

Line 4A. Mantha13:02B. Kindel11:33R. McGroarty10:36

Pair 1K. Letang18:50B. Kulak17:45

Pair 2E. Karlsson16:58P. Wotherspoon17:30

Pair 3R. Shea16:53I. Solovyov15:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.7, PIT 3.6	CHI 2, PIT 6
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	CHI 24.0, PIT 30.3	CHI 20, PIT 45
Win chance	PIT 63%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CHI C. Bedard	2.8	4	0.91	1	28%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.6	6	0.78	0	29%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.4	2	1.08	0	35%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.3	2	0.88	1	27%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	2	0.76	0	16%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.2	1	0.69	0	29%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.0	1	0.53	2	19%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.0	3	0.60	0	13%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.8	1	0.42	2	17%	1
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.8	5	0.45	1	20%	1
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	1	0.47	0	22%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	3	0.53	0	20%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.6	3	0.55	3	21%	1
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.6	0	0.58	0	19%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.5	2	0.46	0	20%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	2	0.35	2	15%	2
PIT R. McGroarty	1.5	5	0.27	0	13%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.5	1	0.30	0	7%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.4	0	0.25	0	7%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.4	1	0.43	0	19%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.3	0	0.41	0	5%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.3	4	0.33	1	14%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.2	0	0.39	0	12%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	0	0.31	0	15%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.2	2	0.54	0	19%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	4	0.23	2	11%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	1	0.22	0	7%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	0	0.35	2	15%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.25	0	4%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	1	0.20	1	5%	1
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	1	0.28	1	5%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.9	3	0.30	2	6%	1
CHI N. Foligno	0.9	0	0.32	0	12%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.9	2	0.27	0	2%	0
CHI C. Dach	0.8	2	0.19	0	8%	0
PIT I. Solovyov	0.8	0	0.20	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.