Game Recap: CHI 1, TBL 4, November 5, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI1

FinalThu, Nov 5, 2026Every game that night

TBL4

TBL beat CHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.00 expected goals to 1.89. TBL outshot CHI 35 to 26. I. Mikheyev led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Z. Girgensons had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	0	1	1
TBL	2	0	2	4

1st 4:12TBLV. HedmanPP0.19 xG
1st 18:22TBLI. Mikheyev0.01 xG
3rd 2:38TBLR. McDonagh0.02 xG
3rd 5:08TBLI. Mikheyev0.40 xG
3rd 19:10CHIR. Kantserov0.04 xG

Team Stats

CHITBL

26Shots on goal35

1.89Expected goals3.00

46Shot attempts52

245v5 shots on goal31

0/1Power play1/3

31Hits13

8Blocked shots9

11Penalty minutes7

11Giveaways15

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.89 xGTBL 3.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI26 on goal, 1 scored

TBL35 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Kantserov	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-2	0	17:31	0:35
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	2	18:05	0:37
A. Frondell	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:58	0:33
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	16:56	0:03
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	15:47	0:20
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	14:13	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	13:53	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:20	0:00
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:56	0:01
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	12:47	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:39	0:00
D. Boucher	LW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	5	8:12	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	0	20:50	0:32
E. Del Mastro	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	14:06	0:05
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	24:56	0:18
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:45	0:06
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	19:55	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	35	31	4	.886	60:00	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Mikheyev	RW	2	0	2	3	0	1	+1	0	16:26	0:00
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:36	2:53
B. Point	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	19:23	2:46
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	16:48	1:35
P. Holmberg	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	16:28	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	1	1	5	3	1	+2	0	15:41	0:00
A. Cirelli	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:53	1:35
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	20:26	3:33
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:41	1:38
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:01	0:56
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	5	9:48	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	2	2	3	2	0	+3	0	16:05	0:00
V. Hedman	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	16:23	1:11
R. McDonagh	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	+3	0	14:44	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	20:54	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	20:47	2:52
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	17:02	3:16
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	26	25	1	.962	59:54	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1T. Bertuzzi16:07R. Kantserov16:14C. Bedard16:48

Line 2F. Nazar14:32R. Donato14:13O. Moore13:53

Line 3A. Mangiapane12:39A. Frondell15:31T. Teravainen11:28

Line 4C. Smith10:12R. Greene10:25D. Boucher8:12

Pair 1I. Cole16:13A. Vlasic20:46

Pair 2A. Levshunov18:50W. Kaiser17:40

Pair 3S. Rinzel19:31E. Mastro14:01

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov16:47B. Point16:31J. Guentzel17:37

Line 2Z. Girgensons15:01I. Mikheyev15:44P. Holmberg15:30

Line 3A. Cirelli12:56B. Hagel14:34G. Goncalves15:18

Line 4J. Viel9:48C. Geekie10:05

Pair 1V. Hedman14:36M. Crozier20:06

Pair 2R. McDonagh14:08E. Cernak14:53

Pair 3J. Carlson17:49C. D'Astous13:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TBL B. Hagel	3.5	+125	-135	3	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	3.5	+130	-150	3	Under
TBL B. Point	2.5	+100	-114	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	-113	-114	3	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	-120	+105	1	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	-155	+132	2	Over
CHI A. Frondell	1.5	-140	+120	1	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	1.5	-115	-110	1	Under
CHI F. Nazar	1.5	-108	+100	1	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.5	-105	-125	3	Over
TBL J. Carlson	1.5	-180	+148	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	1.5	+125	-160	2	Over
TBL M. Crozier	1.5	-110	-110	1	Under
CHI R. Donato	1.5	+150	-200	3	Over
CHI R. Kantserov	1.5	-110	+100	2	Over
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.5	+140	-182	0	Under

4 of 35 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+210	-300	0	Under
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+1050	-2500	0	Under
CHI A. Vlasic	0.5	+1800	-2800	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+140	-165	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+425	-700	0	Under
CHI C. Smith	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
CHI D. Boucher	0.5	+1000	–	0	Under
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
CHI E. Mastro	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
CHI I. Cole	0.5	+3000	-4000	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+370	-600	2	Over
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+550	-650	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+115	-125	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
TBL J. Viel	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
TBL M. Crozier	0.5	+1600	-2500	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
CHI O. Moore	0.5	+725	-1200	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+333	-550	0	Under
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
CHI R. Greene	0.5	+750	-2000	0	Under
CHI R. Kantserov	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+1200	-2800	1	Over
CHI S. Rinzel	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+410	-600	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+625	-1000	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+650	-1600	1	Over
CHI W. Kaiser	0.5	+1500	-5000	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+650	–	0	Under

5 of 20 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+180	-215	1	Over
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+240	-295	0	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+210	-290	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+110	-120	1	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	+115	-115	1	Over
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+120	-141	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+230	-400	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+240	-295	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+240	-425	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+155	-180	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	-112	-105	1	Over
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+200	-300	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-220	+175	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+225	-375	1	Over
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+360	-750	0	Under
CHI R. Kantserov	0.5	+230	-290	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+265	-360	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+230	-400	0	Under

6 of 20 overs hit (30%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TBL B. Hagel	1.5	+210	-230	1	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	1.5	+165	-180	1	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	1.5	-102	-115	0	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	-132	+110	1	Over
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+140	-157	0	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+170	-220	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	-235	+190	1	Over
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	-150	+135	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	-120	+100	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+135	-150	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+130	-160	2	Over
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+115	-120	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+125	-155	1	Over
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+225	-320	0	Under
CHI R. Kantserov	0.5	+115	-141	1	Over
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+146	-175	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over

2 of 20 overs hit (10%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+250	-425	1	Over
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+360	-800	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+235	-295	1	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	+200	-235	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	+260	-300	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+230	-225	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+130	-165	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-115	-115	0	Under
CHI O. Moore	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CHI R. Kantserov	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
CHI S. Rinzel	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+450	-550	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+390	-450	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CHI A. Soderblom	27.5	-108	-114	31	Over
TBL A. Vasilevskiy	18.5	-112	-106	25	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamIlya Mikheyev TBL Faces CHI, his team until Apr 20262 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.3, TBL 4.5	CHI 1, TBL 4
Total goals	6.7	5
Shots on goal	CHI 21.4, TBL 31.9	CHI 26, TBL 35
Win chance	TBL 80%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.4	3	1.88	0	43%	0
TBL B. Hagel	3.3	3	1.33	1	44%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.1	1	1.36	1	45%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.7	3	0.89	0	28%	0
TBL B. Point	2.6	0	1.22	1	43%	0
CHI A. Frondell	1.9	1	0.50	0	19%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	2	0.84	1	30%	0
CHI R. Kantserov	1.7	2	0.60	1	23%	1
CHI F. Nazar	1.7	1	0.50	0	21%	0
TBL J. Carlson	1.7	0	0.63	0	14%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.6	0	0.59	0	25%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.6	1	0.35	0	7%	0
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.5	3	0.49	2	21%	2
TBL G. Goncalves	1.5	1	0.64	0	20%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.5	1	0.64	0	13%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.5	2	0.50	1	20%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.2	3	0.51	1	10%	1
CHI O. Moore	1.2	3	0.29	0	10%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	1	0.28	0	6%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.2	4	0.23	1	7%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.2	1	0.33	0	16%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.2	3	0.34	0	15%	0
TBL J. Viel	1.2	1	0.28	0	12%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	5	0.27	1	13%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	2	0.35	0	8%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.1	3	0.30	2	6%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.0	1	0.27	0	12%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	2	0.21	0	4%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.0	2	0.22	0	11%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	1	0.22	0	5%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	0.9	0	0.37	0	12%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	3	0.41	1	6%	1
CHI I. Cole	0.7	0	0.19	0	3%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.7	1	0.13	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.