Game Recap: CHI 1, TOR 4, December 2, 2024

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Game Recap

CHI1

FinalMon, Dec 2, 2024Every game that night

TOR4

TOR beat CHI 4-1, with the chances close: 2.59 expected goals to 2.93. M. Marner led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). P. Myers had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. A. Stolarz stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	0	1	1
TOR	1	1	2	4

1st 15:35TORA. Matthews0.16 xG
2nd 11:59TORJ. Tavares0.04 xG
3rd 3:26CHIL. Reichel0.59 xG
3rd 3:47TORF. Minten0.16 xG
3rd 18:15TORM. KniesEN0.37 xG

Team Stats

CHITOR

28Shots on goal22

2.93Expected goals2.59

59Shot attempts35

265v5 shots on goal17

0/4Power play0/2

22Hits39

6Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes8

13Giveaways18

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.93 xGTOR 2.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI27 on goal, 1 scored

TOR21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Maroon	LW	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	15:40	2:48
L. Reichel	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:02	2:57
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:52	5:02
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:06	4:18
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-3	0	16:16	4:08
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:14	0:32
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	15:50	0:28
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	15:33	2:45
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:25	4:07
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	13:32	2:25
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	12:58	0:06
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	11:55	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	16:35	0:02
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-2	0	24:14	4:32
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	3	5	1	-1	2	20:30	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:25	3:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:40	0:30
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	13:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	21	18	3	.857	59:17	Loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	0	0	2	+2	0	21:41	2:50
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	3	3	1	+2	2	19:43	2:43
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	2	3	1	+2	0	19:04	2:41
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:03	3:31
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	2	17:06	2:26
P. Holmberg	RW	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	15:30	0:27
F. Minten	C	1	0	1	1	5	1	+1	0	13:05	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	1	1	0	6	1	+1	0	12:08	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	+1	0	12:38	1:34
A. Nylander	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	9:53	1:19
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	9:39	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:32	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	2	20:35	1:10
P. Myers	D	0	1	1	4	7	1	+2	0	18:27	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	15:10	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	21:25	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	20:18	1:19
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	28	27	1	.964	60:00	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTyler Bertuzzi CHI Faces TOR, his team until May 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.3, TOR 3.9	CHI 1, TOR 4
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	CHI 24.9, TOR 34.1	CHI 28, TOR 22
Win chance	TOR 73%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.6	3	1.36	1	52%	1
TOR W. Nylander	4.0	3	1.30	1	45%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.7	3	1.03	1	37%	1
TOR M. Marner	2.6	0	1.40	2	36%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.6	0	0.74	0	22%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.1	3	0.46	0	19%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.0	2	0.70	1	28%	1
TOR M. Rielly	2.0	0	0.73	0	10%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.0	2	0.53	0	21%	0
TOR A. Nylander	1.9	0	0.43	0	22%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.9	3	0.40	0	20%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.7	0	0.43	1	7%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.6	4	0.31	0	14%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.6	1	0.51	0	19%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.5	0	0.46	0	19%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.5	4	0.32	0	16%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.5	1	0.40	0	16%	0
TOR F. Minten	1.3	1	0.44	1	17%	1
CHI P. Kurashev	1.3	0	0.42	0	14%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.2	0	0.41	1	17%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.2	2	0.27	1	10%	1
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	1	0.32	0	15%	0
TOR C. Dewar	1.2	0	0.27	0	12%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	0	0.24	1	13%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	2	0.25	0	3%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.1	1	0.23	0	5%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.0	4	0.16	1	4%	0
TOR C. Timmins	1.0	0	0.40	1	5%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	3	0.19	0	5%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	2	0.25	1	9%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	2	0.13	0	3%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.8	1	0.15	0	2%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.27	0	4%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.6	0	0.20	0	3%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	0	0.20	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.