Game Recap: CHI 2, TOR 3, December 16, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI2

FinalTue, Dec 16, 2025Every game that night

TOR3

TOR beat CHI 3-2, with the chances close: 2.22 expected goals to 1.85. A. Matthews led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Knies had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Woll stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	2	0	0	2
TOR	0	0	3	3

1st 10:21CHIW. Kaiser0.08 xG
1st 14:58CHIJ. DickinsonSH0.17 xG
3rd 9:59TORO. Ekman-Larsson0.02 xG
3rd 16:51TORA. MatthewsPP0.11 xG
3rd 16:59TORD. Joshua0.09 xG

Team Stats

CHITOR

25Shots on goal27

1.85Expected goals2.22

47Shot attempts57

225v5 shots on goal20

0/1Power play1/3

15Hits29

12Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways13

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.85 xGTOR 2.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI24 on goal, 2 scored

TOR27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	18:07	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	17:41	0:00
D. Toninato	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	2	9:32	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:38	1:29
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	19:32	1:29
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:45	1:29
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	2	0	4	-1	0	16:40	0:31
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:30	0:31
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:32	1:29
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	10:57	0:31
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	10:54	0:31
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:53	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	22:39	0:31
L. Crevier	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	19:51	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	22:17	1:29
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	19:11	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	17:45	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	27	24	3	.889	58:59	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	20:30	3:32
W. Nylander	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	20:24	3:29
D. Joshua	C	1	0	1	3	6	0	+1	2	13:14	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	6	4	0	0	0	20:52	3:31
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	18:21	3:27
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	15:24	0:47
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	14:14	0:49
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:00	0:45
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:36	0:14
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	11:33	0:14
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	11:06	0:14
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:58	0:44
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	23:18	0:14
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:28	0:52
T. Stecher	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	20:17	0:14
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	0	22:19	3:24
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	16:22	0:00
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky16:15T. Bertuzzi18:08F. Nazar16:06

Line 2J. Dickinson15:08I. Mikheyev15:35T. Teravainen13:10

Line 3R. Greene11:58O. Moore10:53N. Lardis10:02

Line 4R. Donato10:23C. Dach10:26D. Toninato9:32

Pair 1L. Crevier18:16A. Vlasic17:48

Pair 2W. Kaiser18:43M. Grzelcyk19:17

Pair 3C. Murphy15:38E. Mastro15:07

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander16:55A. Matthews16:10M. Knies17:00

Line 2D. Joshua13:14N. Roy13:48M. Domi12:15

Line 3J. Tavares13:53N. Robertson12:22B. McMann13:25

Line 4S. Laughton9:07S. Lorentz9:01E. Cowan10:14

Pair 1J. McCabe20:51T. Stecher17:42

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson19:36M. Rielly18:15

Pair 3S. Benoit15:33H. Thrun13:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTyler Bertuzzi CHI Faces TOR, his team until May 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.7, TOR 3.4	CHI 2, TOR 3
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	CHI 26.8, TOR 29.2	CHI 25, TOR 27
Win chance	TOR 60%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.1	1	1.16	2	45%	1
TOR J. Tavares	3.0	1	0.96	0	36%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.8	2	1.12	2	38%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.3	6	0.87	0	29%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.1	1	0.63	0	26%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.1	3	0.57	0	19%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.0	1	0.43	0	21%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.9	2	0.54	0	19%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	2	0.72	0	13%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.9	4	0.37	1	19%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.8	0	0.46	0	19%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.7	0	0.56	0	16%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.7	1	0.60	0	19%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	1	0.52	1	10%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	1	0.39	0	19%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.6	0	0.35	0	15%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.5	0	0.48	0	18%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.4	2	0.38	0	15%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	2	0.57	0	19%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.3	3	0.25	1	7%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.2	1	0.22	0	10%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	2	0.28	1	13%	1
CHI O. Moore	1.2	2	0.32	0	10%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.2	2	0.22	1	7%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.2	0	0.28	0	11%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	0	0.46	1	8%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.1	0	0.29	0	3%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	3	0.19	1	6%	1
TOR D. Joshua	1.1	3	0.36	1	17%	1
TOR H. Thrun	1.1	0	0.24	0	6%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.21	0	4%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.9	2	0.24	0	7%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	2	0.15	0	3%	0
CHI D. Toninato	0.7	1	0.18	1	8%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.