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Game Recap
CHI1
UTA2
UTA beat CHI 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.22 expected goals to 1.93. UTA outshot CHI 37 to 22. L. Crouse had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. K. Vejmelka stopped 21 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| UTA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Team Stats
CHIUTA
22Shots on goal37
1.93Expected goals4.22
37Shot attempts92
125v5 shots on goal27
1/2Power play0/5
28Hits24
19Blocked shots9
12Penalty minutes6
19Giveaways16
1Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 1.93 xGUTA 4.22 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 | 2:19 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:50 | 2:19 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:51 | 2:19 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:58 | 0:22 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 2:19 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:55 | 0:28 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 8:34 | 0:28 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:06 | 0:28 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:29 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 25:27 | 1:58 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 22:49 | 0:49 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:12 | 0:06 |
| A. Martinez | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| E. Del Mastro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 37 | 35 | 2 | .946 | 58:04 | Loss |
| P. Mrazek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:42 | 6:48 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:12 | 3:51 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:09 | 2:56 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:28 | 3:53 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:09 | 5:52 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 5:50 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 5:52 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:42 | 3:54 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:49 | 0:17 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:16 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:14 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:17 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:29 | 5:19 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:28 | 0:04 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:08 | 4:26 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:11 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Ingram | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.5, UTA 3.5 | CHI 1, UTA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 23.9, UTA 32.6 | CHI 22, UTA 37 |
| Win chance | UTA 67% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.3 | 3 | 1.03 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 3.2 | 4 | 1.22 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.6 | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.5 | 0 | 0.84 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.4 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.4 | 5 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 2 | 0.93 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.0 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.9 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.9 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.8 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.8 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.8 | 5 | 0.41 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.7 | 4 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.7 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CHI C. Smith | 1.7 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.5 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.4 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI C. Dach | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI A. Martinez | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.9 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI E. Mastro | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.