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Game Recap
CHI3
Final/OTThu, Mar 12, 2026Every game that night
UTA2

CHI beat UTA 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.77 expected goals to 4.95. UTA outshot CHI 31 to 23. T. Bertuzzi led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Keller had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. S. Knight stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
CHI00213
UTA01102
  1. 2nd 5:47UTAD. Guenther0.24 xG
  2. 3rd 2:18CHIT. BertuzziPP0.18 xG
  3. 3rd 9:17CHIF. Nazar0.49 xG
  4. 3rd 13:45UTAJ. Peterka0.13 xG
  5. OT 3:57CHIC. Bedard0.57 xG

Team Stats

CHIUTA
23Shots on goal31
2.77Expected goals4.95
41Shot attempts76
185v5 shots on goal22
1/1Power play0/1
15Hits35
17Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways12
8Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.77 xGUTA 4.95 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdOTUTA goal, 5:47CHI goal, 2:18CHI goal, 9:17UTA goal, 13:45CHI goal, 3:57

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI21 on goal, 3 scored
UTA31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. BedardC1122100023:280:44
F. NazarC1123000016:480:44
T. BertuzziLW112300+1015:310:44
T. TeravainenC011200+1016:010:44
N. LardisLW011021+1012:080:00
R. GreeneC000211-1018:170:00
I. MikheyevRW0000000217:220:00
R. DonatoC0001020016:560:00
A. BurakovskyLW000001-1016:170:00
A. MangiapaneLW000111-1014:430:00
L. SlaggertLW0000320010:430:00
S. LaffertyC000021006:340:00
A. VlasicD011212+1020:050:00
W. KaiserD000012-2022:350:00
M. GrzelcykD0003100021:070:00
S. RinzelD000210-1020:450:00
L. CrevierD000113+1020:270:00
A. LevshunovD000101-1218:040:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight31292.93563:57Win
A. Soderblom000–0:00

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. GuentherRW1014100017:061:21
L. CooleyC011010+1016:030:39
M. CarconeLW011280+1014:320:38
J. PeterkaRW101200+1014:320:38
C. KellerRW0007010220:371:22
N. SchmaltzC000400-1019:261:22
L. CrouseLW0001500017:260:36
B. HaytonC000000-1015:561:24
K. StenlundC0001010014:000:00
J. McBainC00031000212:470:00
K. YamamotoRW0000200012:350:00
A. KerfootC0001210011:560:00
M. SergachevD011313+1026:311:18
M. WeegarD000220+1023:480:00
J. MarinoD0001110021:070:00
N. SchmidtD000000+1018:050:00
I. ColeD000020-1016:470:00
S. DurziD000004-1015:530:42
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka23203.87063:57OT loss
V. Vanecek000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1R. Donato16:47I. Mikheyev15:41A. Mangiapane14:33
Line 2C. Bedard19:02A. Burakovsky15:29R. Greene16:44
Line 3T. Teravainen14:27T. Bertuzzi13:51F. Nazar13:51
Line 4L. Slaggert9:52N. Lardis10:35S. Lafferty6:34
Pair 1S. Rinzel18:14W. Kaiser20:39
Pair 2M. Grzelcyk19:10A. Levshunov17:36
Pair 3L. Crevier19:07A. Vlasic17:48

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz15:33C. Keller16:12L. Crouse16:15
Line 2L. Cooley14:29J. Peterka13:54D. Guenther13:48
Line 3A. Kerfoot11:56K. Yamamoto12:35K. Stenlund13:11
Line 4B. Hayton13:19J. McBain12:40M. Carcone13:54
Pair 1M. Sergachev22:23M. Weegar22:08
Pair 2J. Marino19:20N. Schmidt17:21
Pair 3I. Cole16:03S. Durzi14:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCHI 2.6, UTA 3.3CHI 3, UTA 2
Total goals5.95
Shots on goalCHI 22.5, UTA 28.1CHI 23, UTA 31
Win chanceUTA 63%CHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
UTA D. Guenther3.240.90134%1
CHI C. Bedard2.820.90228%1
UTA C. Keller2.771.05031%0
UTA N. Schmaltz2.440.92029%0
CHI F. Nazar2.130.62221%1
UTA B. Hayton2.000.52019%0
CHI S. Rinzel2.020.3907%0
UTA M. Sergachev2.030.71115%0
UTA L. Cooley1.900.69126%0
UTA M. Weegar1.920.47011%0
UTA J. Peterka1.920.59124%1
UTA L. Crouse1.910.50023%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.830.65227%1
UTA M. Carcone1.720.41119%0
UTA S. Durzi1.600.55013%0
CHI I. Mikheyev1.500.42020%0
UTA J. McBain1.430.37013%0
CHI L. Crevier1.410.1805%0
CHI R. Greene1.420.36014%0
CHI R. Donato1.410.44019%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.320.60120%0
CHI A. Burakovsky1.200.46016%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.200.3609%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.210.3104%0
CHI N. Lardis1.100.24113%0
UTA K. Yamamoto1.100.35015%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.020.2313%0
UTA K. Stenlund1.010.28013%0
UTA A. Kerfoot1.010.32012%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.000.1605%0
CHI M. Grzelcyk0.930.2001%0
CHI A. Mangiapane0.910.26013%0
CHI L. Slaggert0.800.1607%0
UTA J. Marino0.810.4406%0
UTA I. Cole0.800.2604%0
CHI S. Lafferty0.600.1408%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.