Game Recap: CHI 5, VGK 7, February 27, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI5

FinalThu, Feb 27, 2025Every game that night

VGK7

VGK beat CHI 7-5, and the chances backed it up: 3.59 expected goals to 1.86. VGK outshot CHI 33 to 22. I. Barbashev led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). K. Kolesar had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. I. Samsonov stopped 17 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	2	2	5
VGK	5	1	1	7

1st 1:06VGKK. Kolesar0.09 xG
1st 6:58CHIN. Foligno0.28 xG
1st 8:57VGKN. Hague0.15 xG
1st 12:17VGKI. BarbashevPP0.08 xG
1st 16:54VGKT. HertlPP0.21 xG
1st 18:57VGKP. Dorofeyev0.12 xG
2nd 1:01CHIC. Dach0.07 xG
2nd 5:30CHIE. Del Mastro0.15 xG
2nd 13:38VGKK. Kolesar0.46 xG
3rd 6:56CHII. Mikheyev0.04 xG
3rd 9:44CHIP. Kurashev0.20 xG
3rd 15:45VGKI. Barbashev0.06 xG

Team Stats

CHIVGK

22Shots on goal33

1.86Expected goals3.59

46Shot attempts61

205v5 shots on goal28

0/0Power play2/3

20Hits17

16Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes0

16Giveaways19

1Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.86 xGVGK 3.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI21 on goal, 5 scored

VGK33 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Nazar	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	17:23	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-2	0	22:45	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	21:42	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	0	16:39	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	2	15:13	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	12:42	0:00
C. Dach	C	1	0	1	1	6	0	+1	0	12:08	0:00
C. Smith	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	10:49	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	6:40	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	22:43	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:34	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:15	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	3	3	1	3	6	+3	0	22:57	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	-1	0	20:42	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	18:22	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	23:44	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:49	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	15	10	5	.667	20:00
A. Soderblom	18	16	2	.889	37:54	Loss

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
I. Barbashev	LW	2	2	4	2	1	2	+3	15:47	1:25
B. Howden	C	0	3	3	1	0	0	+2	13:25	0:00
T. Hertl	C	1	1	2	2	2	0	0	17:26	3:29
K. Kolesar	RW	2	0	2	5	1	1	+3	17:00	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	22:11	3:31
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	17:23	3:26
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	1	2	3	1	-1	15:25	1:27
N. Roy	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	10:36	1:28
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	19:30	3:26
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	18:13	0:00
R. Lavoie	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	9:32	1:23
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	8:31	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	2	2	5	1	1	0	23:02	3:37
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	21:38	1:17
N. Hague	D	1	0	1	2	2	3	0	20:57	0:01
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	19:50	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	15:17	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	14:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Samsonov	22	17	5	.773	59:47	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.2, VGK 3.7	CHI 5, VGK 7
Total goals	5.9	12
Shots on goal	CHI 22.1, VGK 34.7	CHI 22, VGK 33
Win chance	VGK 74%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.8	1	1.26	1	36%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.2	5	0.72	1	33%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.6	2	0.76	2	28%	1
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	1	0.82	0	24%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.4	2	1.10	0	32%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.3	2	0.59	1	22%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	2.0	2	0.53	1	9%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.9	1	0.52	0	24%	0
CHI S. Jones	1.9	3	0.44	0	9%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.9	2	0.75	4	26%	2
VGK N. Hanifin	1.8	5	0.51	2	10%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	2	0.53	1	22%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.7	2	0.50	1	23%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.7	0	0.69	1	22%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	2	0.38	1	18%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.7	1	0.44	3	20%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.6	0	0.28	1	13%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.6	2	0.41	2	15%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.6	0	0.50	1	17%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.5	0	0.34	0	14%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.4	2	0.41	1	15%	1
VGK N. Hague	1.3	2	0.20	1	5%	1
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	0	0.31	0	5%	0
VGK R. Lavoie	1.3	2	0.15	0	10%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.2	1	0.26	1	10%	1
CHI L. Slaggert	1.2	0	0.26	0	12%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	2	0.25	1	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.1	5	0.37	2	14%	2
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	1	0.19	3	5%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.1	0	0.23	0	6%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	0	0.25	0	7%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.0	1	0.30	1	11%	1
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	1	0.26	0	3%	0
CHI P. Maroon	1.0	1	0.23	0	8%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.5	2	0.13	1	3%	1
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	0	0.18	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.