Game Recap: CHI 3, VGK 4 (SO), December 2, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI3

Final/SOTue, Dec 2, 2025Every game that night

VGK4

VGK beat CHI 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.84 expected goals to 3.58. B. Bowman led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Bedard had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. C. Hart stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CHI	1	1	1	0	3
VGK	1	1	1	1	4

1st 0:27VGKI. Barbashev0.04 xG
1st 1:23CHIO. Moore0.05 xG
2nd 11:22CHIT. Bertuzzi0.16 xG
2nd 17:19VGKB. Hutton0.08 xG
3rd 4:45CHIC. Bedard0.19 xG
3rd 17:32VGKB. Bowman0.07 xG

Team Stats

CHIVGK

30Shots on goal28

3.58Expected goals2.84

65Shot attempts57

195v5 shots on goal23

0/5Power play0/2

9Hits20

16Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways13

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 3.58 xGVGK 2.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI30 on goal, 3 scored

VGK27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	20:20	6:18
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	0	24:22	6:16
F. Nazar	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	2	22:06	6:23
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	21:32	5:36
R. Greene	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	20:57	1:37
O. Moore	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	12:40	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:29	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:21	2:03
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:18	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	14:11	1:41
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:05	1:37
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	21:44	0:18
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	20:50	6:09
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	17:59	0:03
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	17:26	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	15:56	0:23
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	14:21	0:01
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	9:30	1:50

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	28	25	3	.893	64:53	OT loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Barbashev	LW	1	1	2	1	2	1	+2	2	17:53	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	0	15:20	0:00
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	5	0	0	-1	0	19:54	1:41
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	2	3	3	+2	0	24:06	1:41
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:44	2:03
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:25	2:03
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:28	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:20	2:03
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	14:15	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:37	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	8:50	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:49	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	2	2	5	0	3	+1	2	25:17	0:22
B. Hutton	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:10	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	25:27	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	4	3	0	0	22:12	0:22
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	21:54	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	30	27	3	.900	65:00	Win
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky13:09R. Greene15:40C. Bedard13:52

Line 2T. Bertuzzi14:02F. Nazar13:07O. Moore12:04

Line 3R. Donato11:15C. Dach12:30I. Mikheyev14:12

Line 4T. Teravainen10:12J. Dickinson13:19

Pair 1A. Vlasic18:36L. Crevier16:21

Pair 2C. Murphy13:44M. Grzelcyk12:46

Pair 3W. Kaiser16:26A. Levshunov11:24

VGK

Line 1J. Eichel16:25I. Barbashev15:43B. Bowman15:13

Line 2B. Saad11:51P. Dorofeyev12:17T. Hertl12:30

Line 3M. Marner12:30B. Howden11:26M. Stone12:03

Line 4K. Kolesar7:52C. Reinhardt7:49C. Sissons7:21

Pair 1N. Hanifin18:17Z. Whitecloud18:01

Pair 2B. McNabb16:05S. Theodore17:39

Pair 3B. Hutton13:10K. Korczak12:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.4, VGK 3.5	CHI 3, VGK 4
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	CHI 22.3, VGK 32.3	CHI 30, VGK 28
Win chance	VGK 67%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.6	2	1.22	0	35%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.1	1	0.72	0	34%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.7	1	0.81	0	30%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.6	6	0.89	1	27%	1
VGK M. Stone	2.2	5	1.02	1	29%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.2	5	0.74	2	11%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.1	3	0.52	0	12%	0
VGK B. Bowman	2.0	3	0.63	2	23%	1
CHI F. Nazar	1.9	3	0.60	1	21%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	1	1.17	0	29%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	1	0.62	2	25%	1
CHI R. Donato	1.8	3	0.51	0	21%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	1	0.41	0	20%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	1	0.66	2	24%	1
VGK B. Saad	1.5	2	0.38	0	18%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.5	0	0.57	1	18%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	0	0.46	0	21%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.3	1	0.25	1	6%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	0	0.64	0	20%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.2	3	0.35	1	16%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.29	0	6%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	0	0.28	0	11%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.1	0	0.25	0	3%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.1	2	0.29	0	14%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.0	3	0.38	0	4%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	0	0.24	0	7%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	2	0.27	0	10%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.0	2	0.33	1	10%	1
CHI W. Kaiser	0.9	0	0.16	0	3%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.9	4	0.20	0	3%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.8	0	0.24	0	10%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.8	0	0.21	0	1%	0
CHI C. Murphy	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.7	2	0.18	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.