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Game Recap
CHI0
FinalSat, Mar 14, 2026Every game that night
VGK4

VGK beat CHI 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.66 expected goals to 2.23. VGK outshot CHI 32 to 21. P. Dorofeyev led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Hill stopped 21 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CHI0000
VGK3104
  1. 1st 8:33VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.11 xG
  2. 1st 11:35VGKR. Andersson0.11 xG
  3. 1st 12:00VGKK. Kolesar0.08 xG
  4. 2nd 12:51VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.09 xG

Team Stats

CHIVGK
21Shots on goal32
2.23Expected goals3.66
45Shot attempts52
155v5 shots on goal23
0/4Power play2/5
20Hits20
7Blocked shots7
24Penalty minutes22
16Giveaways12
4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.23 xGVGK 3.66 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdVGK goal, 8:33VGK goal, 11:35VGK goal, 12:00VGK goal, 12:51

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI21 on goal, 0 scored
VGK32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. BertuzziLW0003100022:054:01
C. BedardC0002200219:454:01
F. NazarC0001000019:204:01
I. MikheyevRW000300-1017:360:00
T. TeravainenC0000000217:303:58
R. GreeneC0002100015:072:26
A. BurakovskyLW0000000015:042:29
R. DonatoC000120-1014:492:27
A. MangiapaneLW000330-1213:000:00
N. LardisLW000110-108:442:25
L. SlaggertLW000110-108:380:00
S. LaffertyC000010-105:550:00
A. LevshunovD000044-1023:553:51
A. VlasicD0001010021:180:00
M. GrzelcykD000000-1220:250:00
S. RinzelD000020-1018:502:36
L. CrevierD0002220417:560:00
E. Del MastroD000100-11211:160:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight32284.87559:56Loss
A. Soderblom000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
P. DorofeyevRW213500+1015:082:57
M. MarnerRW022000+1017:333:28
M. StoneRW0224000015:312:50
N. DowdC011200+1411:180:19
K. KolesarRW101240+1011:040:11
J. EichelC0002000018:102:58
B. HowdenC0001100016:431:08
C. SissonsC0001100015:310:00
I. BarbashevLW0001100014:322:02
T. HertlC000441+1014:282:43
B. BowmanRW0000010014:171:50
C. SmithRW000230+1210:240:12
R. AnderssonD101300+1023:382:07
N. HanifinD011101+1022:511:05
J. LauzonD011130+11413:390:00
B. McNabbD0002220021:560:25
S. TheodoreD0001120019:312:15
K. KorczakD000000+1213:460:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Hill212101.00060:00Win
A. Schmid000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1T. Teravainen11:59F. Nazar12:42T. Bertuzzi15:56
Line 2I. Mikheyev12:58R. Donato12:18A. Mangiapane12:34
Line 3A. Burakovsky11:42C. Bedard14:40R. Greene9:04
Line 4L. Slaggert7:50S. Lafferty5:55N. Lardis6:09
Pair 1M. Grzelcyk17:39A. Levshunov15:56
Pair 2L. Crevier14:56A. Vlasic15:41
Pair 3S. Rinzel14:48E. Mastro10:23

VGK

Line 1C. Sissons12:42B. Bowman12:27B. Howden12:00
Line 2T. Hertl11:24P. Dorofeyev12:11M. Marner10:05
Line 3M. Stone10:07J. Eichel11:09I. Barbashev12:30
Line 4K. Kolesar9:32C. Smith9:34N. Dowd10:06
Pair 1N. Hanifin18:11R. Andersson17:22
Pair 2B. McNabb15:25S. Theodore13:46
Pair 3K. Korczak13:42J. Lauzon10:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCHI 2.4, VGK 3.4CHI 0, VGK 4
Total goals5.84
Shots on goalCHI 21.0, VGK 28.8CHI 21, VGK 32
Win chanceVGK 66%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel3.521.22034%0
VGK P. Dorofeyev2.950.74334%2
CHI C. Bedard2.720.95029%0
VGK T. Hertl2.340.75028%0
CHI F. Nazar2.010.63021%0
VGK M. Marner1.901.08228%0
VGK M. Stone1.840.93227%0
VGK S. Theodore1.810.69013%0
VGK R. Andersson1.830.43112%1
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.730.66026%0
CHI S. Rinzel1.700.4007%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.710.43110%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.610.67024%0
VGK B. Bowman1.600.58017%0
CHI I. Mikheyev1.530.44020%0
CHI R. Donato1.410.47019%0
VGK B. Howden1.410.44021%0
CHI R. Greene1.420.37014%0
VGK C. Sissons1.310.31012%0
VGK B. McNabb1.320.2807%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.300.61020%0
CHI L. Crevier1.220.2006%0
CHI A. Burakovsky1.200.48016%0
CHI N. Lardis1.110.28013%0
VGK C. Smith1.020.2109%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.010.1714%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.000.3204%0
CHI A. Mangiapane0.930.29014%0
CHI A. Vlasic0.910.2503%0
VGK K. Kolesar0.920.27110%1
VGK N. Dowd0.920.30114%0
CHI M. Grzelcyk0.900.2402%0
CHI L. Slaggert0.810.1707%0
VGK K. Korczak0.800.2204%0
CHI E. Mastro0.610.1705%0
CHI S. Lafferty0.600.1407%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.