Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CHI3
WSH5
WSH beat CHI 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.88 expected goals to 2.98. J. Carlson led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). C. Lindgren stopped 19 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| WSH | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
- 1st 3:52WSHA. Ovechkin0.13 xG
- 1st 13:55CHIT. Bertuzzi0.48 xG
- 2nd 0:31CHIF. Nazar0.21 xG
- 2nd 7:09WSHM. Fehérváry0.54 xG
- 2nd 7:19CHIP. Kurashev0.50 xG
- 3rd 3:46WSHD. StromePP0.06 xG
- 3rd 6:13WSHA. OvechkinPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 18:24WSHR. LeonardEN0.91 xG
Team Stats
CHIWSH
22Shots on goal29
2.98Expected goals4.88
43Shot attempts61
225v5 shots on goal27
0/1Power play2/3
12Hits18
14Blocked shots10
6Penalty minutes2
12Giveaways7
2Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 2.98 xGWSH 4.88 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Nazar | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:15 | 1:08 |
| O. Moore | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:21 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 1:39 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:57 | 0:21 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:16 | 1:39 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:05 | 1:39 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:52 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:58 | 0:31 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:00 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:29 |
| K. Korchinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:21 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 28 | 25 | 4 | .893 | 59:37 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:27 | 3:43 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 | 3:02 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:41 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:15 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:36 | 3:28 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:51 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:58 | 3:12 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:49 | 2:52 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:31 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 60:00 | Win |
| H. Shepard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.5, WSH 3.8 | CHI 3, WSH 5 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 23.1, WSH 30.6 | CHI 22, WSH 29 |
| Win chance | WSH 70% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.6 | 3 | 1.08 | 2 | 42% | 2 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.5 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.5 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.3 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 3 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 2.0 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.0 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 1 | 0.99 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.9 | 4 | 0.59 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.8 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.6 | 3 | 0.39 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI K. Korchinski | 1.0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI J. Veleno | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.