Game Recap: CHI 3, WSH 2 (SO), January 3, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI3

Final/SOSat, Jan 3, 2026Every game that night

WSH2

CHI beat WSH 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.98 expected goals to 3.30. J. Carlson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. S. Knight stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CHI	1	1	0	1	3
WSH	1	0	1	0	2

1st 1:13CHIR. Donato0.12 xG
1st 4:46WSHD. Strome0.10 xG
2nd 4:24CHIT. TeravainenPP0.12 xG
3rd 11:18WSHR. Leonard0.12 xG

Team Stats

CHIWSH

33Shots on goal34

2.98Expected goals3.30

60Shot attempts60

305v5 shots on goal30

1/2Power play0/1

11Hits23

9Blocked shots19

2Penalty minutes4

19Giveaways16

9Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.98 xGWSH 3.30 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI32 on goal, 2 scored

WSH34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	-1	0	20:37	1:58
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	18:43	1:58
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	18:26	0:00
R. Donato	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:59	1:04
T. Teravainen	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:44	1:58
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	20:07	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	17:21	0:00
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	14:34	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:58	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:41	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:56	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:27	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	23:46	0:54
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	23:13	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	22:36	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	20:30	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	17:26	1:04
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	16:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	34	32	2	.941	65:00	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Strome	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	21:12	1:13
R. Leonard	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	20:21	1:15
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	20:07	0:00
E. Frank	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	14:20	0:45
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	3	3	3	0	0	22:07	0:47
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	20:51	0:42
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:09	0:00
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	18:49	2:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:37	0:00
S. Milano	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	7:25	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	6:53	0:00
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5:55	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	18:43	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:06	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	+1	4	24:58	1:18
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	23:53	1:22
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	21:20	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:10	0:38

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	33	31	2	.939	65:00	OT loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1J. Dickinson16:39I. Mikheyev17:26R. Donato15:55

Line 2A. Burakovsky17:15R. Greene17:59T. Bertuzzi16:45

Line 3N. Lardis12:30O. Moore12:23T. Teravainen11:21

Line 4N. Foligno10:27C. Dach11:41L. Slaggert10:06

Pair 1W. Kaiser21:58A. Levshunov21:52

Pair 2A. Vlasic20:06L. Crevier19:39

Pair 3C. Murphy15:35M. Grzelcyk15:03

WSH

Line 1A. Ovechkin16:49A. Beauvillier19:08D. Strome17:24

Line 2C. McMichael19:34J. Sourdif18:38R. Leonard17:35

Line 3N. Dowd17:07E. Frank13:35B. Duhaime10:47

Line 4S. Milano7:25H. Lapierre6:53

Pair 1J. Chychrun20:47M. Roy18:43

Pair 2J. Carlson20:00M. Fehérváry19:22

Pair 3R. Sandin18:52T. Riemsdyk16:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnthony Beauvillier WSH Faces CHI, his team until Mar 20241 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.6, WSH 3.5	CHI 3, WSH 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	CHI 24.3, WSH 30.2	CHI 33, WSH 34
Win chance	WSH 65%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.2	2	1.01	0	40%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	3.1	2	0.75	0	25%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.5	0	0.96	0	35%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.2	3	0.44	1	19%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.1	3	0.66	0	24%	0
WSH R. Leonard	2.1	3	0.59	1	18%	1
WSH D. Strome	2.0	2	1.01	1	29%	1
CHI R. Donato	2.0	1	0.57	1	23%	1
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	3	0.63	1	26%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	5	0.69	0	14%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	2	0.41	1	21%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.5	4	0.46	0	18%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.5	3	0.27	0	14%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.5	4	0.58	1	18%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.4	4	0.35	0	13%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.4	4	0.44	1	18%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.3	2	0.23	0	6%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	2	0.35	1	6%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.3	2	0.45	0	5%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.3	0	0.39	0	14%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	1	0.57	1	19%	1
CHI O. Moore	1.2	2	0.34	0	10%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	1	0.29	0	14%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.2	0	0.37	0	17%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	0	0.32	0	8%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	0	0.37	0	6%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.0	3	0.31	0	3%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	1	0.19	0	4%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	2	0.20	0	6%	0
WSH S. Milano	0.9	1	0.35	0	15%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.9	1	0.18	0	8%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.9	1	0.22	0	4%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	1	0.23	1	3%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.7	0	0.18	0	9%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.6	2	0.23	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.