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Game Recap
COL5
FinalTue, Mar 3, 2026Every game that night
ANA1

COL beat ANA 5-1, with the chances close: 3.35 expected goals to 2.87. C. Makar led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Wedgewood stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
COL2125
ANA0101
  1. 1st 11:33COLC. Makar0.16 xG
  2. 1st 14:05COLM. NecasPP0.09 xG
  3. 2nd 4:50ANAC. Gauthier0.13 xG
  4. 2nd 15:03COLP. Kelly0.05 xG
  5. 3rd 4:35COLG. Landeskog0.11 xG
  6. 3rd 10:06COLP. Kelly0.08 xG

Team Stats

COLANA
26Shots on goal28
3.35Expected goals2.87
53Shot attempts55
225v5 shots on goal23
1/3Power play0/3
16Hits24
11Blocked shots10
6Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways17
5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.35 xGANA 2.87 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdCOL goal, 11:33COL goal, 14:05ANA goal, 4:50COL goal, 15:03COL goal, 4:35COL goal, 10:06

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL26 on goal, 5 scored
ANA26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. NelsonC022310+1016:534:06
P. KellyC202223+2016:270:00
J. DruryC022200+2016:220:00
M. NecasC101201+1221:294:08
N. MacKinnonC011320+1020:434:00
G. LandeskogLW101300+1020:134:11
V. NichushkinRW0111020014:280:42
R. ColtonC0000100212:510:46
V. OlofssonLW000200+2012:060:49
Z. BardakovC000020009:490:00
G. BrindleyC000100-109:050:58
J. PolinRW000011008:090:00
C. MakarD123201+2022:263:31
B. KulakD011111+1018:060:00
J. MansonD000231+1219:270:00
B. BurnsD000010+1019:030:00
D. ToewsD000101+1018:201:24
S. MalinskiD0001200018:030:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Wedgewood28271.96460:00Win
M. Blackwood000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. GauthierLW1015000016:544:00
B. SenneckeRW000210-2019:393:52
A. KillornLW000300-1018:222:06
L. CarlssonC0002010017:203:55
R. PoehlingC000001-2016:400:00
J. VielLW000130-2016:051:59
M. McTavishC000230-1014:312:04
C. KreiderLW0001100214:283:56
T. WasheC0002310011:320:00
R. JohnstonLW0001200011:100:00
J. HarkinsC000050-109:500:00
J. LaCombeD0112000019:574:16
P. MintyukovD0001020021:421:44
J. TroubaD000310-1420:022:08
D. HellesonD0000130018:350:00
O. ZellwegerD000312-3018:210:00
R. GudasD000020-2017:540:00
I. MooreD0000100012:230:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal26215.80859:40Loss
V. Husso000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon16:40M. Necas17:01G. Landeskog15:36
Line 2P. Kelly13:56J. Drury13:52V. Olofsson11:17
Line 3V. Nichushkin10:23R. Colton11:49B. Nelson9:17
Line 4Z. Bardakov9:49J. Polin8:09G. Brindley8:07
Pair 1B. Burns16:59J. Manson18:28
Pair 2B. Kulak16:06S. Malinski16:31
Pair 3D. Toews14:20C. Makar15:25

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier12:26L. Carlsson13:17C. Kreider10:32
Line 2M. McTavish12:27B. Sennecke15:47A. Killorn12:41
Line 3R. Johnston11:04T. Washe9:58J. Harkins9:46
Line 4R. Poehling13:09J. Viel14:06
Pair 1R. Gudas16:25O. Zellweger17:01
Pair 2J. Trouba16:29J. LaCombe15:41
Pair 3P. Mintyukov16:01D. Helleson16:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCOL 3.6, ANA 3.0COL 5, ANA 1
Total goals6.76
Shots on goalCOL 32.4, ANA 28.8COL 26, ANA 28
Win chanceCOL 59%COL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon4.531.61143%0
ANA C. Gauthier3.650.76131%1
COL C. Makar2.921.15328%1
COL M. Necas2.821.15132%1
COL B. Nelson2.630.94236%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.620.84027%0
COL G. Landeskog2.530.87130%1
COL V. Nichushkin2.310.73130%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.320.76027%0
ANA C. Kreider2.110.65034%0
ANA A. Killorn2.030.47022%0
COL S. Malinski2.010.3907%0
ANA M. McTavish2.020.51021%0
COL R. Colton2.000.40016%0
COL B. Burns2.000.41010%0
ANA J. Trouba1.930.3608%0
COL D. Toews1.810.54012%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.820.5719%0
COL J. Manson1.620.4009%0
COL V. Olofsson1.620.39019%0
ANA J. Viel1.510.18012%0
ANA R. Poehling1.500.47017%0
COL P. Kelly1.420.35214%2
ANA O. Zellweger1.330.2306%0
COL J. Drury1.320.34213%0
COL B. Kulak1.210.2315%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.110.3608%0
ANA T. Washe1.020.20010%0
ANA J. Harkins0.900.1608%0
ANA I. Moore0.900.2104%0
ANA R. Gudas0.900.1803%0
COL G. Brindley0.910.2109%0
COL J. Polin0.700.1207%0
ANA D. Helleson0.700.1904%0
ANA R. Johnston0.610.1705%0
COL Z. Bardakov0.500.1805%0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.