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Game Recap
COL3
BUF1
COL beat BUF 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.33 expected goals to 2.24. COL outshot BUF 37 to 28. N. MacKinnon led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Wedgewood stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 3:14COLN. MacKinnon0.06 xG
- 1st 16:32BUFT. Thompson0.05 xG
- 2nd 4:32COLC. Makar0.22 xG
- 2nd 11:59COLN. MacKinnon0.13 xG
Team Stats
COLBUF
37Shots on goal28
3.33Expected goals2.24
62Shot attempts66
255v5 shots on goal22
0/4Power play0/3
20Hits11
21Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes10
16Giveaways20
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 3.33 xGBUF 2.24 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:47 | 5:53 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:27 | 4:48 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:46 | 2:57 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:50 | 4:45 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 4:25 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:35 | 3:08 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 3:23 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:55 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:11 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:07 |
| G. Brindley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 25:22 | 4:43 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:17 | 2:38 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:34 | 2:05 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:02 |
| I. Solovyov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 59:57 | Win |
| T. Miner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:14 | 3:31 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 18:28 | 2:32 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:30 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:34 | 2:28 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:09 | 2:27 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:09 | 3:19 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:53 | 3:28 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:49 | 3:02 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Dunne | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:25 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 27:19 | 3:47 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:59 | 2:44 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:24 | 2:12 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
COL
Line 1N. MacKinnon14:29M. Necas13:05A. Lehkonen11:17
Line 2V. Olofsson10:08J. Drury11:23R. Colton12:18
Line 3P. Kelly9:25G. Brindley10:05J. Kiviranta8:58
Line 4G. Landeskog9:40V. Nichushkin8:06B. Nelson7:53
Pair 3I. Solovyov12:04S. Malinski13:43
BUF
Line 1T. Thompson13:37J. Doan12:27A. Tuch13:27
Line 2J. Danforth12:22J. Quinn11:00J.Kulich10:47
Line 4B. Malenstyn6:51T. Kozak8:16J. Dunne6:25
Pair 2C. Timmins12:19O. Power13:31
Pair 3J. Bryson10:39R. Johnson9:44
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.6, BUF 3.0 | COL 3, BUF 1 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | COL 30.2, BUF 26.5 | COL 37, BUF 28 |
| Win chance | COL 60% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.3 | 5 | 1.55 | 2 | 41% | 2 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.4 | 4 | 0.94 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.0 | 4 | 1.13 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.7 | 3 | 1.01 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.5 | 0 | 0.85 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.5 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 4 | 0.71 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.3 | 1 | 0.71 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.3 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.2 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 2.1 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 1.8 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL V. Olofsson | 1.7 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.7 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.6 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.5 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.5 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.3 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF J. Danforth | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL I. Solovyov | 1.0 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF R. Johnson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF J. Dunne | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.