Game Recap: COL 7, CBJ 3, April 3, 2025

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Game Recap

COL7

FinalThu, Apr 3, 2025Every game that night

CBJ3

COL beat CBJ 7-3, with the chances close: 3.02 expected goals to 2.84. C. Makar led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. Lindgren had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. M. Blackwood stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	2	3	2	7
CBJ	1	2	0	3

1st 3:25COLN. MacKinnon0.15 xG
1st 6:35CBJS. Monahan0.23 xG
1st 18:05COLB. Nelson0.27 xG
2nd 4:16CBJZ. Aston-Reese0.01 xG
2nd 7:56CBJB. Jenner0.29 xG
2nd 12:39COLC. Coyle0.09 xG
2nd 14:02COLP. Kelly0.03 xG
2nd 19:22COLC. MakarPP0.15 xG
3rd 4:01COLD. Toews0.02 xG
3rd 5:49COLM. Wood0.20 xG

Team Stats

COLCBJ

32Shots on goal30

3.02Expected goals2.84

62Shot attempts74

295v5 shots on goal24

1/2Power play0/3

15Hits22

20Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways11

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.02 xGCBJ 2.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL31 on goal, 7 scored

CBJ30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	0	17:31	2:41
C. Coyle	C	1	2	3	2	1	1	+2	0	14:55	2:36
M. Wood	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	11:33	0:00
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	17:22	2:39
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	2	15:59	0:37
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	3	1	4	+2	0	14:43	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:29	0:32
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:13	2:41
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	15:00	0:34
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	2	13:19	0:00
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	13:04	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	0	11:35	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	2	3	3	0	2	+3	0	21:33	2:41
D. Toews	D	1	2	3	1	0	1	+3	0	21:18	0:32
E. Johnson	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	18:23	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	5	3	2	-1	0	22:45	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:30	0:32
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	30	27	3	.900	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Jenner	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	21:32	4:19
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	20:03	4:29
S. Monahan	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	-2	0	18:16	4:33
D. Voronkov	LW	0	1	1	3	2	1	-2	0	15:42	1:37
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	2	10:27	0:06
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	18:21	4:45
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	18:14	1:25
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	12:41	0:06
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	12:31	0:06
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:26	1:19
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:58	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	10:22	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	18:58	0:00
J. Johnson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	0	13:31	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	27:01	4:48
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	22:23	1:15
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	16:46	1:12
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	16:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	28	21	7	.750	45:49	Loss
D. Tarasov	4	4	0	1.000	14:11

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCharlie Coyle CBJ Faces COL, his team until May 20251 G, 2 A, 2 SOG
Old teamValeri Nichushkin CBJ Faces COL, his team until May 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.6, CBJ 3.1	COL 7, CBJ 3
Total goals	6.7	10
Shots on goal	COL 30.9, CBJ 27.7	COL 32, CBJ 30
Win chance	COL 57%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	2	1.49	3	40%	1
COL C. Makar	3.1	3	1.07	3	26%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.0	4	0.82	0	16%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.9	1	0.90	0	37%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	1	0.77	0	31%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.3	3	0.60	1	27%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.2	4	0.80	1	25%	1
COL B. Nelson	2.2	2	0.74	1	31%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	1	0.59	0	24%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	3	0.54	1	24%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.0	4	0.69	1	30%	0
COL D. Toews	1.9	1	0.57	3	11%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	0	0.65	1	23%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	1	0.37	0	14%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.5	2	0.23	0	6%	0
COL R. Colton	1.5	2	0.39	0	17%	0
COL M. Wood	1.5	1	0.22	2	10%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	1	0.36	0	16%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.4	1	0.35	0	16%	0
COL J. Drury	1.2	0	0.27	1	10%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.2	2	0.21	1	10%	1
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.2	1	0.24	0	12%	0
CBJ L. Kunin	1.2	1	0.21	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.2	3	0.30	1	6%	0
COL C. Coyle	1.1	2	0.37	3	16%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.1	3	0.23	1	10%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.1	3	0.33	0	7%	0
COL E. Johnson	1.1	0	0.13	1	5%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.1	0	0.27	0	12%	0
COL K. Middleton	1.0	0	0.09	0	2%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	1	0.26	0	13%	0
COL J. Vesey	1.0	3	0.24	0	11%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.9	0	0.28	0	7%	0
COL R. Lindgren	0.8	5	0.25	0	4%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.6	0	0.11	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.