Game Recap: COL 2, PHI 3, October 19, 2026

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Game Recap

COL2

FinalMon, Oct 19, 2026Every game that night

PHI3

PHI beat COL 3-2, with the chances close: 2.98 expected goals to 2.37. T. Zegras led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Drysdale had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Woll stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	1	1	2
PHI	1	1	1	3

1st 7:41PHIM. MichkovPP0.47 xG
2nd 12:23PHIM. Michkov0.03 xG
2nd 17:52COLM. Necas0.04 xG
3rd 6:34PHIN. Acciari0.09 xG
3rd 14:40COLT. Hughes0.06 xG

Team Stats

COLPHI

26Shots on goal24

2.37Expected goals2.98

68Shot attempts49

225v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play1/2

16Hits26

15Blocked shots24

0Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways6

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.37 xGPHI 2.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL26 on goal, 2 scored

PHI24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	19:06	0:40
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:40	0:59
T. Hughes	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	16:54	3:23
F. Svechkov	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	16:05	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	24:20	3:22
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	21:17	3:20
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	18:46	0:37
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	16:27	3:01
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:36	0:38
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	12:31	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:57	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	20:48	1:17
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	2	5	4	+1	14:40	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	23:38	2:43
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	16:00	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	15:52	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	14:16	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	8:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	24	21	3	.875	57:58	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Zegras	C	0	3	3	3	1	1	+2	0	17:41	1:39
M. Michkov	RW	2	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	14:37	1:51
N. Acciari	C	1	0	1	4	3	2	0	0	18:31	0:00
D. Barkey	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	16:41	1:39
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	13:47	0:12
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	17:43	0:43
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	2	16:44	0:00
P. Martone	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:02	1:51
C. Knuble	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:44	0:00
J. Gaucher	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:45	0:00
A. Bump	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:55	0:43
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:16	0:43
O. Bonk	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	-1	0	24:22	0:55
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	4	1	7	+1	2	28:21	0:12
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	23:40	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	22:51	1:39
H. McDonald	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	-1	0	10:00	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	9:20	0:43

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	26	24	2	.923	60:00	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1A. Lehkonen17:09N. MacKinnon18:56N. Kadri15:55

Line 2B. Nelson16:30G. Landeskog13:58M. Necas14:47

Line 3J. Schwartz11:24T. Hughes11:29F. Svechkov15:00

Line 4P. Kelly11:16G. Brindley7:57

Pair 1D. Toews18:26C. Makar17:48

Pair 2B. Kulak15:17S. Malinski14:28

Pair 3B. Burns14:35J. Manson13:30

PHI

Line 1N. Acciari16:04C. Dvorak14:57T. Zegras16:02

Line 2S. Couturier14:22J. Gaucher12:45M. Bunting9:33

Line 3C. Knuble13:09D. Barkey13:04A. Bump10:12

Line 4N. Cates10:48P. Martone12:11M. Michkov10:52

Pair 1T. Sanheim24:39O. Bonk22:26

Pair 2N. Seeler18:37J. Drysdale19:10

Pair 3H. McDonald9:32D.Jiricek8:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 13 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
COL N. MacKinnon	3.5	-148	+120	1	Under
COL C. Makar	2.5	+105	-125	4	Over
COL M. Necas	2.5	+128	-155	2	Under
COL N. Kadri	2.5	-110	+100	1	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	1.5	-140	+120	2	Over
COL B. Nelson	1.5	-145	+135	3	Over
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	+100	-125	1	Under
COL D. Toews	1.5	+100	-130	1	Under
COL G. Landeskog	1.5	-135	+110	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	1.5	-160	+115	2	Over
PHI N. Cates	1.5	+125	-160	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	1.5	-150	+115	1	Under
PHI T. Zegras	1.5	-145	+115	3	Over

3 of 31 overs hit (10%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
PHI A. Bump	0.5	+600	–	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+195	-275	0	Under
COL B. Burns	0.5	+1300	-2000	0	Under
COL B. Kulak	0.5	+1700	-2500	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+260	-350	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+375	-500	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+300	-500	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+900	–	0	Under
COL F. Svechkov	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
COL G. Brindley	0.5	+750	-1400	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+1000	-4000	0	Under
COL J. Manson	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+375	-600	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+275	–	2	Over
COL M. Necas	0.5	+210	-275	1	Over
PHI N. Acciari	0.5	+950	–	1	Over
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
COL N. Juulsen	0.5	+2200	–	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+250	-320	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+110	-130	0	Under
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+3000	–	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
COL P. Kelly	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+333	–	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+1300	-2000	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+300	-475	0	Under

7 of 25 overs hit (28%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+225	-290	1	Over
COL B. Burns	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
COL B. Kulak	0.5	+350	-525	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+250	-295	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	-155	+135	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+350	-475	1	Over
COL D. Toews	0.5	+165	-190	1	Over
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+265	–	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+225	-285	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+230	-310	0	Under
COL J. Manson	0.5	+220	–	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+250	-400	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+190	-250	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	-105	-120	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+380	-600	1	Over
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+186	-200	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	-175	+135	0	Under
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+600	–	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+300	-425	1	Over
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+270	-300	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+275	-390	1	Over
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+280	-390	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+164	-200	3	Over

9 of 25 overs hit (36%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
COL N. MacKinnon	1.5	+110	-120	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	-105	-110	1	Over
COL B. Burns	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
COL B. Kulak	0.5	+290	-425	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+140	-165	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	-225	+210	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+200	-250	1	Over
COL D. Toews	0.5	+115	-135	1	Over
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+190	–	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+120	-140	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+190	-240	0	Under
COL J. Manson	0.5	+190	–	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+135	-170	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+100	-130	2	Over
COL M. Necas	0.5	-215	+165	1	Over
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+220	-260	1	Over
COL N. Kadri	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+500	–	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+255	-300	1	Over
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+124	-150	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+185	-255	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+195	-270	1	Over
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+220	-310	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	-110	-105	3	Over

3 of 17 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+380	-900	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+155	-180	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+475	-1400	1	Over
COL D. Toews	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+450	-650	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+360	-800	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+290	-500	1	Over
COL M. Necas	0.5	+250	-300	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+235	-350	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+155	-185	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+310	-550	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+380	-375	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
PHI J. Woll	27.5	-102	-110	24	Under
COL M. Blackwood	21.5	-110	-110	21	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
PHI N. Seeler	2.5	-130	–	2	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	2.5	-105	–	7	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.4, PHI 2.5	COL 2, PHI 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	COL 31.1, PHI 23.6	COL 26, PHI 24
Win chance	COL 65%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	1	1.31	0	39%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.7	1	0.71	0	26%	0
COL M. Necas	2.5	2	1.01	1	30%	1
COL C. Makar	2.4	4	0.86	0	22%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.0	0	0.62	0	25%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.0	3	0.62	0	28%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.9	2	0.63	1	27%	0
COL T. Hughes	1.9	2	0.44	1	17%	1
PHI M. Michkov	1.8	2	0.56	2	20%	2
PHI T. Zegras	1.8	3	0.66	3	24%	0
PHI P. Martone	1.8	1	0.41	0	15%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.6	2	0.31	1	7%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.6	1	0.53	0	19%	0
PHI M. Bunting	1.5	1	0.38	0	16%	0
COL B. Burns	1.5	1	0.29	0	7%	0
COL J. Schwartz	1.5	3	0.43	0	17%	0
COL D. Toews	1.5	1	0.48	1	10%	0
PHI N. Acciari	1.4	4	0.29	1	14%	1
PHI A. Bump	1.4	1	0.35	0	15%	0
COL J. Manson	1.3	1	0.29	0	6%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.3	2	0.35	0	13%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.2	0	0.36	1	14%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.2	4	0.40	0	9%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	4	0.33	0	7%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	1	0.30	0	12%	0
COL F. Svechkov	1.0	0	0.28	1	11%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	0	0.20	0	4%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.0	2	0.22	0	4%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.0	0	0.36	1	13%	0
PHI O. Bonk	1.0	0	0.31	1	6%	0
PHI J. Gaucher	0.9	0	0.09	0	5%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.9	0	0.15	0	6%	0
PHI D.Jiricek	0.8	0	0.19	0	4%	0
COL N. Juulsen	0.4	0	0.10	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.