Game Recap: COL 6, PIT 2, March 24, 2026

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Game Recap

COL6

FinalTue, Mar 24, 2026Every game that night

PIT2

COL beat PIT 6-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.02 expected goals to 3.46. M. Necas led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Crosby had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Wedgewood stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	4	1	1	6
PIT	1	0	1	2

1st 4:57COLN. MacKinnon0.13 xG
1st 8:09PITE. Chinakhov0.07 xG
1st 15:24COLS. Malinski0.05 xG
1st 16:44COLM. NecasPP0.08 xG
1st 17:19COLP. Kelly0.06 xG
2nd 17:29COLM. Necas0.09 xG
3rd 11:47PITR. Rakell0.15 xG
3rd 16:20COLR. ColtonEN0.37 xG

Team Stats

COLPIT

30Shots on goal32

2.02Expected goals3.46

52Shot attempts67

255v5 shots on goal22

1/3Power play0/4

14Hits16

20Blocked shots10

10Penalty minutes8

23Giveaways15

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.02 xGPIT 3.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL30 on goal, 6 scored

PIT31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	2	0	2	2	1	0	+1	0	16:20	2:54
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:03	3:24
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	4	16:12	2:48
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:50	2:56
L. O'Connor	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	15:05	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	14:58	0:32
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	14:06	0:00
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	13:21	0:00
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	11:50	0:38
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	3	1	4	0	0	16:27	0:30
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:15	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:41	0:00
S. Malinski	D	1	1	2	3	1	0	+3	0	17:29	0:02
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	2	0	5	-1	0	22:04	2:50
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+3	0	19:29	0:36
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	21:53	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	2	18:29	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	17:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	32	30	2	.938	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-3	0	22:40	6:03
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	-3	2	21:40	5:09
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	6	1	0	-3	0	21:11	5:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-1	0	15:30	2:36
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	18:08	4:11
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:56	0:42
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:58	0:05
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	12:51	0:00
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	12:20	1:57
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	10:48	1:48
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:45	0:04
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:06	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	18:11	0:05
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	17:16	1:49
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	23:53	5:04
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	20:53	0:12
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	2	5	1	-2	0	16:36	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	29	24	5	.828	59:50	Loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1G. Landeskog15:54N. MacKinnon15:35M. Necas13:26

Line 2N. Kadri13:24L. O'Connor12:10P. Kelly11:41

Line 3V. Nichushkin12:17R. Colton11:02B. Nelson10:38

Line 4J. Drury11:06Z. Bardakov10:41J. Kiviranta10:15

Pair 1B. Kulak18:28C. Makar17:40

Pair 2B. Burns15:23J. Manson16:23

Pair 3S. Malinski15:50D. Toews15:22

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby15:59B. Rust15:49R. Rakell15:55

Line 2A. Mantha13:47T. Novak13:14E. Chinakhov12:42

Line 3N. Acciari10:50E. Soderblom10:41C. Dewar10:38

Line 4V. Koivunen10:06B. Kindel10:18J. Brazeau9:00

Pair 1E. Karlsson18:37P. Wotherspoon19:50

Pair 2K. Letang14:48S. Girard17:18

Pair 3C. Clifton13:55R. Shea13:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSamuel Girard PIT Faces COL, his team until Feb 20261 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.4, PIT 2.9	COL 6, PIT 2
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	COL 30.4, PIT 27.0	COL 30, PIT 32
Win chance	COL 58%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	2	1.52	1	41%	1
COL M. Necas	2.8	2	1.17	2	33%	2
COL N. Kadri	2.8	2	0.78	1	28%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.6	1	0.89	1	35%	0
COL C. Makar	2.5	2	1.00	1	25%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.5	3	0.78	1	30%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.5	3	0.88	0	31%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.4	6	0.95	1	32%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.4	4	0.67	1	26%	1
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.3	4	0.55	1	23%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.2	3	0.71	1	30%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	1	0.68	0	12%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.8	3	0.35	2	7%	1
PIT B. Kindel	1.8	4	0.39	0	18%	0
COL R. Colton	1.8	1	0.37	1	16%	1
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	1	0.59	0	23%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.7	2	0.52	0	21%	0
COL B. Burns	1.6	2	0.34	0	9%	0
COL D. Toews	1.5	1	0.46	1	10%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.5	1	0.41	1	8%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	0	0.31	0	14%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	1	0.34	0	16%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.4	0	0.25	0	12%	0
COL J. Manson	1.3	3	0.33	0	7%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	2	0.32	1	14%	1
PIT E. Soderblom	1.2	1	0.21	0	11%	0
COL J. Drury	1.2	1	0.30	1	11%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.1	0	0.32	1	13%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	0	0.24	0	11%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	0.9	0	0.22	0	7%	0
PIT S. Girard	0.9	0	0.27	1	4%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.8	1	0.27	0	3%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	1	0.26	0	4%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.7	2	0.18	0	3%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.5	1	0.16	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.