TOR beat COL 2-1, with the chances close: 2.89 expected goals to 3.21. COL outshot TOR 39 to 26. S. Malinski had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Woll stopped 38 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 0:28TORA. MatthewsPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 2:48COLV. NichushkinPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 2:53TORS. LorentzSH0.06 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 3.21 xGTOR 2.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:26 | 2:22 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:12 | 2:22 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:42 | 2:22 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:38 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:39 | 0:38 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:23 | 2:22 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:38 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:38 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:09 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 27:20 | 2:22 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:05 | 0:38 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 58:21 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:22 | 1:06 |
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 | 1:06 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:36 | 1:06 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:29 | 1:06 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 1:06 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:42 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:41 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 39 | 38 | 1 | .974 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Stolarz | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.3, TOR 3.1 | COL 1, TOR 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | COL 29.5, TOR 26.8 | COL 39, TOR 26 |
| Win chance | COL 54% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.8 | 6 | 1.39 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.7 | 8 | 1.15 | 1 | 45% | 1 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 2.9 | 3 | 0.99 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.7 | 2 | 1.03 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.6 | 4 | 0.87 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.5 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.3 | 4 | 0.76 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.0 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 1.9 | 2 | 1.09 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.8 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 1.8 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.5 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.3 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.2 | 6 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL C. Coyle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL E. Johnson | 0.8 | 4 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.5 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.