Game Recap: COL 4, TOR 1, January 25, 2026

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Game Recap

COL4

FinalSun, Jan 25, 2026Every game that night

TOR1

COL beat TOR 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.42 expected goals to 3.09. B. Nelson scored three for COL. M. Rielly had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. M. Blackwood stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	2	1	1	4
TOR	0	0	1	1

1st 6:19COLB. Nelson0.07 xG
1st 7:31COLB. Nelson0.05 xG
2nd 18:53COLJ. Drury0.07 xG
3rd 17:41COLB. NelsonEN0.63 xG
3rd 18:58TORM. DomiPP0.50 xG

Team Stats

COLTOR

37Shots on goal33

4.42Expected goals3.09

67Shot attempts59

315v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play1/3

14Hits28

8Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways14

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.42 xGTOR 3.09 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL37 on goal, 4 scored

TOR31 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	3	0	3	4	0	0	+3	0	20:37	3:41
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	23:18	3:41
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	17:04	1:41
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	2	16:07	1:38
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:22	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	11:29	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	8:53	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	20:57	2:19
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	18:12	2:22
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:32	0:19
T. Makar	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:56	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	6:50	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	6	0	2	+2	0	23:28	3:27
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	+1	0	21:09	0:19
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	20:50	0:33
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	3	4	4	+2	2	20:19	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	19:38	0:00
J. Ahcan	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	10:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
I. Posch	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Domi	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:07	2:19
B. McMann	C	0	1	1	3	5	0	-3	0	17:58	2:19
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	11:41	2:19
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	7	0	2	-1	0	19:42	2:13
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	19:04	2:12
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	17:48	2:14
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	16:52	2:14
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-2	0	16:39	0:01
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:40	0:02
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	13:16	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:10	2:08
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:15	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	5	0	3	0	0	22:03	2:10
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-3	0	20:00	2:17
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	18:45	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	18:43	0:11
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	17:29	0:06
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	2	16:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	36	33	3	.917	56:33	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1M. Necas16:47N. MacKinnon17:42V. Olofsson14:23

Line 2A. Lehkonen13:16V. Nichushkin13:12B. Nelson13:03

Line 3J. Drury12:34G. Brindley10:13T. Makar9:56

Line 4P. Kelly8:10J. Kiviranta8:03Z. Bardakov6:50

Pair 1C. Makar16:09S. Malinski18:49

Pair 2B. Burns15:30J. Manson16:49

Pair 3S. Girard17:48J. Ahcan10:46

TOR

Line 1M. Domi13:36A. Matthews12:45M. Knies12:23

Line 2J. Tavares14:24B. McMann13:57S. Laughton13:58

Line 3N. Robertson10:32N. Roy12:37M. Maccelli13:26

Line 4S. Lorentz11:02J. Quillan6:15E. Cowan8:45

Pair 1J. McCabe16:01B. Carlo16:14

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson15:56S. Benoit15:35

Pair 3T. Stecher16:32M. Rielly16:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNicolas Roy COL First game back in Toronto, his team until Mar 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 4.1, TOR 3.1	COL 4, TOR 1
Total goals	7.1	5
Shots on goal	COL 36.2, TOR 26.2	COL 37, TOR 33
Win chance	COL 64%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.8	2	1.58	1	42%	0
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	7	1.03	0	43%	0
COL M. Necas	3.0	2	1.13	0	31%	0
COL C. Makar	2.8	6	1.10	1	28%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.7	4	0.88	3	34%	3
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	1	0.79	0	31%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.3	4	0.66	1	28%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.3	2	0.66	1	27%	0
COL V. Olofsson	2.2	2	0.56	0	24%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.2	3	0.45	1	23%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.1	5	0.41	0	8%	0
COL B. Burns	2.0	0	0.42	0	11%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	0	0.70	0	25%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.7	4	0.60	0	19%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.6	1	0.51	1	15%	1
COL J. Manson	1.6	3	0.40	0	9%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	5	0.52	0	9%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	1	0.36	0	18%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.5	1	0.31	1	13%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	1	0.33	1	12%	1
TOR E. Cowan	1.3	2	0.33	1	14%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.2	1	0.31	0	12%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	3	0.31	0	14%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.2	1	0.36	0	7%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	0	0.25	0	10%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	0	0.33	0	6%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.0	1	0.34	0	13%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.0	2	0.18	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	0	0.31	0	5%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.9	1	0.13	0	3%	0
COL T. Makar	0.8	1	0.09	0	6%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	1	0.16	1	8%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.6	0	0.22	0	5%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	1	0.09	0	2%	0
COL J. Ahcan	0.5	2	0.15	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.