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Game Recap
COL4
UTA1
COL beat UTA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.19 expected goals to 2.97. A. Lehkonen scored three for COL. J. McBain had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. M. Blackwood stopped 34 of 35.
Team Stats
COLUTA
37Shots on goal35
4.19Expected goals2.97
66Shot attempts62
285v5 shots on goal27
0/2Power play1/3
19Hits10
12Blocked shots19
11Penalty minutes9
12Giveaways16
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 4.19 xGUTA 2.97 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 5 | 19:08 | 3:13 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:39 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 21:05 | 3:06 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 20:03 | 3:13 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:47 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 2:15 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Innala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5:57 | 0:53 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:07 | 0:00 |
| G. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 25:17 | 3:03 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:12 | 0:57 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:54 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 35 | 34 | 1 | .971 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:11 | 3:18 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:57 | 3:06 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:42 | 3:18 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 16:16 | 3:18 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:02 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:02 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 1:42 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:18 | 0:02 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:40 | 1:58 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:15 | 1:46 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:48 | 1:46 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 24:54 | 3:18 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 | 1:46 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:06 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:02 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 58:28 | Loss |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.5, UTA 3.3 | COL 4, UTA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | COL 29.7, UTA 28.0 | COL 37, UTA 35 |
| Win chance | COL 52% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.5 | 4 | 1.30 | 3 | 37% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.8 | 4 | 0.99 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 2 | 1.02 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.5 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 2.4 | 3 | 1.09 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.3 | 5 | 0.82 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.1 | 4 | 0.71 | 3 | 29% | 3 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 3 | 0.85 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.9 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.3 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.3 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 5 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL G. Smith | 0.6 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA V. Kolyachonok | 0.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.