Game Recap: COL 3, UTA 4 (OT), October 21, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

COL3

Final/OTTue, Oct 21, 2025Every game that night

UTA4

UTA beat COL 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.74 expected goals to 2.38. M. Sergachev led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. MacKinnon had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.8. K. Vejmelka stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
COL	1	0	2	0	3
UTA	0	2	1	1	4

1st 5:29COLC. Makar0.02 xG
2nd 9:17UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.36 xG
2nd 12:30UTAL. Crouse0.33 xG
3rd 1:10COLJ. Drury0.30 xG
3rd 5:20UTAM. Sergachev0.03 xG
3rd 17:44COLM. Necas0.04 xG
OT 0:33UTAD. Guenther0.10 xG

Team Stats

COLUTA

33Shots on goal33

2.38Expected goals2.74

65Shot attempts52

335v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play1/2

20Hits28

8Blocked shots19

4Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways21

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.38 xGUTA 2.74 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL33 on goal, 3 scored

UTA32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	0	22:04	2:00
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	14:22	0:02
R. Colton	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	14:05	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	9:21	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	5:57	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	8	2	0	-1	0	20:51	2:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:46	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:17	0:00
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:12	1:58
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:38	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:43	2:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	8:25	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	25:30	2:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+2	0	25:14	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	21:23	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	18:53	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	14:56	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	12:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	33	29	4	.879	60:33	OT loss
T. Miner	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	0	2	2	4	0	1	0	0	16:54	1:47
K. Stenlund	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	18:55	0:00
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	1	4	0	4	-1	0	17:56	1:47
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	17:26	1:46
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	4	5	0	+1	0	15:45	0:40
M. Carcone	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	12:49	0:00
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	19:20	1:48
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:11	0:41
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:48	0:42
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	3	4	1	-1	0	11:52	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	11:28	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	4:56	0:41
M. Sergachev	D	1	2	3	4	0	1	+1	0	24:56	1:54
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22:49	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	2	20:00	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:56	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	19:55	0:34
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	33	30	3	.909	60:33	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1M. Necas19:34N. MacKinnon18:18A. Lehkonen17:49

Line 2B. Nelson15:51V. Nichushkin17:17G. Landeskog16:38

Line 3R. Colton14:05J. Drury13:52V. Olofsson11:43

Line 4G. Brindley7:42P. Kelly7:54Z. Bardakov5:57

Pair 1D. Toews23:28C. Makar22:14

Pair 2B. Burns20:30J. Manson17:42

Pair 3S. Malinski14:56I. Solovyov12:10

UTA

Line 1L. Cooley16:50J. Peterka16:06D. Guenther15:07

Line 2B. Hayton16:25N. Schmaltz15:32C. Keller14:39

Line 3L. Crouse13:44M. Carcone12:49K. Stenlund17:37

Line 4L. O'Brien11:52B. Tanev11:28

Pair 1M. Sergachev20:34D. Simashev20:00

Pair 2N. Schmidt19:16J. Marino22:44

Pair 3I. Cole17:59O. Maatta10:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.3, UTA 3.0	COL 3, UTA 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	COL 28.5, UTA 27.1	COL 33, UTA 33
Win chance	COL 55%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	8	1.36	0	38%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	3	0.77	1	29%	1
COL C. Makar	2.7	2	0.94	1	24%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.5	4	0.92	2	30%	0
COL M. Necas	2.4	2	0.89	1	27%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.3	4	0.75	1	24%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	1	0.71	0	29%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	1	0.74	0	30%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.0	2	0.73	0	26%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.0	1	0.61	0	28%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.0	1	0.62	0	23%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.8	1	0.69	0	26%	0
COL B. Burns	1.8	3	0.36	0	8%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	1	0.44	0	17%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.7	1	0.46	0	21%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	4	0.57	3	11%	1
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	4	0.32	1	18%	1
COL R. Colton	1.5	1	0.35	1	16%	0
COL D. Toews	1.4	2	0.47	0	10%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.4	3	0.22	0	6%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	3	0.28	0	7%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.3	0	0.36	0	15%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.3	1	0.30	1	15%	0
COL J. Drury	1.2	2	0.27	1	10%	1
UTA M. Carcone	1.2	3	0.29	1	15%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	0	0.30	0	6%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	0	0.20	1	9%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.0	3	0.11	0	3%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	3	0.14	0	6%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.9	0	0.20	0	10%	0
COL I. Solovyov	0.9	2	0.17	0	3%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.8	0	0.19	0	10%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.7	0	0.28	0	3%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.6	0	0.17	0	2%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.5	0	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.