Game Recap: COL 4, UTA 2, February 25, 2026

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Game Recap

COL4

FinalWed, Feb 25, 2026Every game that night

UTA2

COL beat UTA 4-2, with the chances close: 2.95 expected goals to 3.14. D. Guenther led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Sergachev had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. S. Wedgewood stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	4	0	4
UTA	0	2	0	2

2nd 3:26COLP. Kelly0.15 xG
2nd 9:13COLV. Olofsson0.23 xG
2nd 10:49UTAD. GuentherPP0.05 xG
2nd 12:20COLB. Nelson0.13 xG
2nd 13:20UTAD. Guenther0.19 xG
2nd 17:17COLM. NecasPP0.07 xG

Team Stats

COLUTA

26Shots on goal30

2.95Expected goals3.14

57Shot attempts63

235v5 shots on goal19

1/3Power play1/5

11Hits21

17Blocked shots15

8Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways15

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.95 xGUTA 3.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL26 on goal, 4 scored

UTA27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	2	18:33	3:14
P. Kelly	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	15:21	0:00
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	0	22:56	3:06
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	19:13	3:03
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	16:35	2:46
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	11:47	0:47
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	17:13	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:34	0:52
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	+1	0	11:48	0:55
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:52	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	8:20	0:44
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:54	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-1	0	22:40	3:22
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	19:06	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	2	17:50	0:05
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	16:11	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	2	21:38	0:56
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	19:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	30	28	2	.933	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Guenther	RW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+1	0	19:26	5:34
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	5	0	2	-1	0	22:36	5:39
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:21	0:41
J. McBain	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	2	11:45	0:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	22:13	5:39
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	16:44	5:29
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	15:56	0:36
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	14:34	0:04
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:43	0:36
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:22	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	11:16	0:36
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	8:49	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	5	1	1	0	0	25:40	5:35
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	19:43	0:36
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:40	0:04
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-2	0	17:10	0:06
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	16:46	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	14:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	26	22	4	.846	57:56	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1G. Landeskog14:50M. Necas14:41B. Nelson14:55

Line 2A. Lehkonen12:10V. Nichushkin11:46J. Drury13:07

Line 3V. Olofsson11:00P. Kelly12:16R. Colton10:53

Line 4G. Brindley7:36Z. Bardakov6:54J. Kiviranta9:44

Pair 1C. Makar16:49D. Toews16:30

Pair 2B. Kulak16:17S. Malinski14:25

Pair 3B. Burns15:04J. Manson14:13

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz14:10C. Keller14:25L. Crouse12:41

Line 2D. Guenther11:21L. Cooley13:32J. McBain11:35

Line 3K. Yamamoto10:40J. Peterka11:49B. Hayton10:01

Line 4K. Stenlund10:08B. Tanev8:49A. Kerfoot10:16

Pair 1S. Durzi18:07M. Sergachev15:12

Pair 2N. Schmidt15:18J. Marino17:22

Pair 3I. Cole13:27N. DeSimone14:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.5, UTA 3.0	COL 4, UTA 2
Total goals	6.5	6
Shots on goal	COL 30.5, UTA 26.5	COL 26, UTA 30
Win chance	COL 58%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	3	0.73	2	29%	2
COL C. Makar	2.7	2	0.94	1	23%	0
COL M. Necas	2.5	3	1.00	2	30%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.4	5	0.84	1	27%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.3	1	0.80	0	27%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.3	5	0.86	1	34%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.3	1	0.75	1	31%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	1	0.67	0	27%	0
COL R. Colton	2.0	2	0.42	0	17%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.0	0	0.32	1	6%	0
COL B. Burns	1.9	1	0.37	1	9%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.9	1	0.62	1	24%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.9	3	0.49	0	24%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.9	5	0.46	0	17%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.9	0	0.61	0	25%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.8	1	0.62	1	24%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.7	2	0.42	1	20%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	5	0.60	1	11%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	1	0.34	1	8%	0
COL D. Toews	1.6	2	0.43	0	9%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.4	0	0.36	1	14%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.4	1	0.31	2	13%	1
UTA S. Durzi	1.3	1	0.38	0	8%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.2	0	0.22	0	5%	0
COL J. Drury	1.2	1	0.34	0	13%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	0	0.26	0	13%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.0	1	0.30	0	14%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.0	1	0.25	0	11%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.9	2	0.22	0	10%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	0.9	2	0.27	0	5%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	0.8	0	0.23	0	9%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.7	0	0.34	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	1	0.19	0	2%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.6	1	0.12	0	7%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.5	0	0.17	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.