Game Recap: COL 4, VGK 8, October 9, 2024

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Game Recap

COL4

FinalWed, Oct 9, 2024Every game that night

VGK8

VGK beat COL 8-4, with the chances close: 2.55 expected goals to 2.51. COL outshot VGK 32 to 21. I. Barbashev led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). B. Howden had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Hill stopped 28 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	1	2	1	4
VGK	3	2	3	8

1st 10:48COLM. Rantanen0.09 xG
1st 11:15VGKV. Olofsson0.01 xG
1st 18:32VGKI. Barbashev0.14 xG
1st 18:57VGKM. Stone0.13 xG
2nd 4:15COLM. RantanenPP0.09 xG
2nd 5:49VGKZ. Whitecloud0.09 xG
2nd 17:32COLC. Mittelstadt0.03 xG
2nd 19:46VGKV. OlofssonPP0.10 xG
3rd 6:59COLM. Rantanen0.03 xG
3rd 8:29VGKM. StonePP0.41 xG
3rd 13:54VGKI. Barbashev0.04 xG
3rd 19:24VGKB. HowdenEN0.49 xG

Team Stats

COLVGK

32Shots on goal21

2.51Expected goals2.55

61Shot attempts34

255v5 shots on goal17

1/3Power play2/3

22Hits19

9Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways17

8Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.51 xGVGK 2.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL32 on goal, 4 scored

VGK19 on goal, 8 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	3	0	3	6	0	0	-1	0	20:44	4:34
N. MacKinnon	C	0	2	2	4	1	1	-2	0	21:33	3:59
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	19:47	4:30
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	21:25	4:17
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:33	0:04
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-3	0	16:05	0:17
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	15:18	0:00
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	14:57	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	2	12:01	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:34	0:15
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:44	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:40	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	-1	0	26:15	4:16
S. Girard	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	20:44	0:22
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	4	20:42	0:24
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	3	2	0	-1	0	18:20	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	13:43	0:02
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	12:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	16	11	5	.688	40:00	Loss
J. Annunen	4	2	2	.500	15:16

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	4	4	3	1	3	+3	0	20:37	2:29
I. Barbashev	LW	2	2	4	2	2	1	+3	0	16:26	0:30
M. Stone	RW	2	1	3	2	2	4	+4	0	20:25	2:31
V. Olofsson	LW	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	13:03	2:30
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	0	20:13	2:29
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	13:19	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	10:45	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:00	0:29
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	13:25	0:28
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	13:22	0:00
B. Brisson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:48	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:44	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	3	3	1	0	2	0	0	19:39	2:38
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	22:47	0:21
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	20:12	0:30
B. McNabb	D	0	1	1	0	4	1	+3	2	19:01	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	16:53	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	18:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	32	28	4	.875	60:00	Win
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNicolas Roy COL Faces VGK, his team until May 20250 SOG
Old teamVictor Olofsson VGK Faces COL, his team until Mar 20262 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.2, VGK 3.2	COL 4, VGK 8
Total goals	6.4	12
Shots on goal	COL 31.5, VGK 30.7	COL 32, VGK 21
Win chance	COL 51%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	5.5	4	1.62	2	44%	0
VGK J. Eichel	4.2	3	1.07	4	34%	0
COL M. Rantanen	3.8	6	1.30	3	41%	3
COL C. Makar	3.3	1	1.08	2	22%	0
COL M. Wood	2.5	3	0.36	0	15%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	0	0.66	1	24%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.2	1	0.70	3	10%	0
COL D. Toews	2.2	1	0.62	1	11%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	2	0.85	3	26%	2
VGK N. Hanifin	2.1	0	0.57	1	11%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.0	0	0.48	0	21%	0
COL J. Drouin	2.0	0	0.80	0	19%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	2.0	2	0.51	1	9%	0
COL J. Manson	2.0	3	0.37	1	9%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	2.0	3	0.72	1	19%	1
COL R. Colton	1.8	2	0.46	0	19%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.5	1	0.33	0	16%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.5	1	0.32	1	12%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.5	0	0.34	0	13%	0
COL S. Girard	1.4	1	0.37	2	6%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.4	1	0.20	0	5%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	2	0.55	4	19%	2
COL P. Kelly	1.4	3	0.24	0	11%	0
VGK B. Brisson	1.4	0	0.47	0	13%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.4	0	0.45	0	15%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	1	0.32	0	6%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.2	3	0.32	2	16%	2
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	0	0.31	1	5%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.2	4	0.32	1	14%	1
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	0	0.19	0	8%	0
COL C. Haan	1.0	1	0.16	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	1	0.22	1	6%	1

Shots on goal: 13 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.