Game Recap: COL 3, VGK 5, May 24, 2026

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Game Recap

COL3

FinalSun, May 24, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

VGK5

VGK beat COL 5-3, with the chances close: 4.22 expected goals to 3.68. COL outshot VGK 35 to 23. M. Stone led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). G. Landeskog had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. C. Hart stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	3	0	0	3
VGK	0	3	2	5

1st 3:21COLG. Landeskog0.50 xG
1st 7:03COLN. Kadri0.10 xG
1st 13:15COLJ. DrurySH0.32 xG
2nd 0:19VGKM. StonePP0.20 xG
2nd 4:05VGKW. Karlsson0.27 xG
2nd 12:46VGKK. Kolesar0.56 xG
3rd 8:21VGKT. Hertl0.05 xG
3rd 19:01VGKB. HowdenEN0.67 xG

Team Stats

COLVGK

35Shots on goal23

3.68Expected goals4.22

71Shot attempts47

215v5 shots on goal13

0/4Power play1/3

17Hits34

11Blocked shots22

18Penalty minutes10

19Giveaways16

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.68 xGVGK 4.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL33 on goal, 3 scored

VGK23 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
G. Landeskog	LW	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	24:04	7:07
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	21:18	7:09
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	19:19	6:25
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	5	2	1	-1	0	18:02	7:05
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	12:52	0:00
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	11:04	0:00
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	19:02	0:48
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:15	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	12:02	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:17	1:34
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	8:34	0:48
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	12	8:29	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	23:14	0:57
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	16:20	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	3	0	6	0	0	27:14	7:25
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	16:38	0:27
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	15:04	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	22	18	4	.818	58:15	Loss
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	2	1	0	0	2	23:59	4:05
W. Karlsson	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+3	0	17:22	0:18
M. Stone	RW	1	1	2	3	4	0	-1	2	15:45	4:26
T. Hertl	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	13:23	3:57
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	+2	0	17:03	0:46
K. Kolesar	RW	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	5:19	0:13
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	23:02	3:46
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:09	3:54
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	15:57	0:47
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:27	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:20	0:13
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	6:08	0:17
K. Korczak	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	+2	0	9:38	0:04
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	23:32	0:33
D. Coghlan	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	+2	0	11:04	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	0	23:45	0:06
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	2	3	5	-1	0	23:17	0:13
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	2	21:06	1:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	35	32	3	.914	59:44	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1B. Nelson13:42M. Necas11:38N. Kadri10:43

Line 2G. Landeskog14:56A. Lehkonen15:27N. MacKinnon8:50

Line 3L. O'Connor10:43P. Kelly10:20J. Drury9:32

Line 4N. Roy9:08V. Nichushkin6:15R. Colton7:54

Pair 1D. Toews17:15C. Makar16:13

Pair 2B. Burns14:53J. Manson12:39

Pair 3S. Malinski12:02B. Kulak13:00

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev14:31J. Eichel14:36P. Dorofeyev11:56

Line 2M. Marner15:40B. Howden12:15W. Karlsson12:38

Line 3M. Stone10:26T. Hertl9:23C. Sissons9:57

Line 4N. Dowd6:48C. Smith5:32K. Kolesar5:06

Pair 1B. McNabb17:12S. Theodore17:12

Pair 2N. Hanifin16:53R. Andersson14:53

Pair 3D. Coghlan10:38K. Korczak9:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNicolas Roy COL Faces VGK, his team until May 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.3, VGK 2.9	COL 3, VGK 5
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	COL 30.0, VGK 27.1	COL 35, VGK 23
Win chance	COL 55%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.7	5	1.28	1	38%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	1	1.01	0	28%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	3	0.64	0	31%	0
COL M. Necas	2.5	2	1.01	1	29%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.5	6	0.80	1	30%	1
COL N. Kadri	2.4	3	0.64	1	24%	1
COL C. Makar	2.4	3	0.88	0	22%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.1	2	0.97	2	27%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.0	2	0.53	2	20%	1
COL S. Malinski	1.9	2	0.40	0	9%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	0	0.63	1	12%	0
COL B. Nelson	1.8	0	0.56	0	26%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.8	3	0.74	2	24%	1
VGK R. Andersson	1.7	0	0.42	0	10%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.7	1	0.54	0	23%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	2	0.32	0	8%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	1.7	2	0.52	0	23%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	2	0.55	2	11%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.7	3	0.48	2	19%	1
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	0	0.60	0	22%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.5	2	0.41	0	7%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	2	0.46	1	22%	1
VGK D. Coghlan	1.5	3	0.15	1	3%	0
COL R. Colton	1.4	1	0.27	0	12%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	0	0.28	1	6%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.2	2	0.22	0	4%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	1	0.22	0	10%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	0	0.25	1	11%	0
VGK N. Dowd	1.0	0	0.25	0	12%	0
COL N. Roy	0.9	1	0.30	0	12%	0
COL L. O'Connor	0.9	2	0.23	0	9%	0
COL J. Drury	0.9	1	0.22	1	8%	1
VGK C. Smith	0.8	0	0.17	0	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.7	1	0.18	1	8%	1
VGK K. Korczak	0.5	0	0.14	2	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.