Game Recap: COL 1, VGK 2, May 26, 2026

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Game Recap

COL1

FinalTue, May 26, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

VGK2

VGK beat COL 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.97 expected goals to 1.97. C. Hart stopped 20 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	0	1	1
VGK	1	0	1	2

1st 4:42VGKM. Stone0.31 xG
3rd 14:15VGKC. Smith0.07 xG
3rd 17:57COLG. Landeskog0.08 xG

Team Stats

COLVGK

21Shots on goal26

1.97Expected goals2.97

44Shot attempts57

185v5 shots on goal19

0/1Power play0/2

30Hits29

11Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways15

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 1.97 xGVGK 2.97 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL21 on goal, 1 scored

VGK26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	20:06	1:51
G. Landeskog	LW	1	0	1	2	3	1	+1	2	19:48	1:13
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	18:42	1:20
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	22:10	1:19
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	19:18	0:40
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:30	0:47
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:48	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	11:39	0:09
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:05	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:24	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:15	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	8:50	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	27:30	1:26
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	24:31	0:41
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	18:39	0:34
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:37	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	7	1	-1	2	14:58	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	14:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	26	24	2	.923	57:54	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Stone	RW	1	0	1	2	3	1	+1	0	15:42	3:33
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	10:57	0:00
C. Smith	RW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	2	9:20	0:00
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	22:22	3:48
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	21:12	3:48
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	19:07	3:48
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	+1	0	18:19	0:12
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	17:34	0:12
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	15:36	0:12
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	15:15	3:48
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	11:53	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	7:43	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	23:56	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	23:31	0:00
D. Coghlan	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:08	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:31	0:27
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	20:26	0:12
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	11:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	21	20	1	.952	60:00	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon18:45G. Landeskog16:45A. Lehkonen15:52

Line 2N. Kadri15:16M. Necas16:09B. Nelson14:26

Line 3P. Kelly9:53J. Drury9:45J. Kiviranta8:59

Line 4N. Roy11:30R. Colton8:50L. O'Connor9:36

Pair 1D. Toews20:20C. Makar22:04

Pair 2B. Kulak16:07S. Malinski14:16

Pair 3B. Burns16:11J. Manson14:46

VGK

Line 1W. Karlsson16:16M. Marner16:22B. Howden16:21

Line 2P. Dorofeyev15:19J. Eichel14:42I. Barbashev15:24

Line 3M. Stone11:32T. Hertl11:14C. Sissons10:48

Line 4N. Dowd10:22C. Smith9:20K. Kolesar7:43

Pair 1B. McNabb21:40S. Theodore21:36

Pair 2R. Andersson17:54N. Hanifin18:21

Pair 3D. Coghlan13:08K. Korczak11:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNicolas Roy COL Faces VGK, his team until May 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.3, VGK 2.9	COL 1, VGK 2
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	COL 30.3, VGK 26.9	COL 21, VGK 26
Win chance	COL 56%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.6	2	1.25	0	37%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	1	1.04	0	29%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.7	2	0.84	1	31%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	2	0.66	0	31%	0
COL M. Necas	2.5	0	1.01	1	29%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.5	0	0.66	1	24%	0
COL C. Makar	2.5	4	0.91	0	22%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.2	2	1.01	0	27%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.9	4	0.54	0	20%	0
COL B. Nelson	1.8	3	0.56	0	26%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.8	2	0.36	0	8%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.8	2	0.76	1	25%	1
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	0	0.61	1	11%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.7	1	0.53	0	23%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.7	3	0.51	0	20%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	0	0.32	0	8%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.7	0	0.41	0	9%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	3	0.53	0	10%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	1	0.60	0	21%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.5	4	0.40	0	7%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	1	0.47	0	23%	0
VGK D. Coghlan	1.4	1	0.15	1	3%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	0	0.29	0	6%	0
COL R. Colton	1.4	1	0.26	0	12%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.1	0	0.21	0	4%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	0	0.21	1	4%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	1	0.22	0	10%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	2	0.26	0	12%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.0	0	0.23	0	9%	0
COL N. Roy	0.9	1	0.30	0	12%	0
COL J. Drury	0.9	0	0.23	0	9%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.9	2	0.24	1	11%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.9	0	0.16	0	8%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.7	2	0.15	1	7%	1
VGK K. Kolesar	0.7	0	0.17	0	7%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.5	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.