Game Recap: COL 3, WSH 2 (OT), March 22, 2026

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Game Recap

COL3

Final/OTSun, Mar 22, 2026Every game that night

WSH2

COL beat WSH 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.51 expected goals to 2.74. M. Necas led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Blackwood stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
COL	0	0	2	1	3
WSH	1	0	1	0	2

1st 11:53WSHJ. Sourdif0.22 xG
3rd 1:05COLG. Landeskog0.22 xG
3rd 6:03COLN. Roy0.21 xG
3rd 14:17WSHA. OvechkinPP0.13 xG
OT 1:22COLB. Nelson0.18 xG

Team Stats

COLWSH

24Shots on goal22

2.51Expected goals2.74

55Shot attempts42

205v5 shots on goal15

0/2Power play1/5

15Hits18

5Blocked shots14

10Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways11

7Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.51 xGWSH 2.74 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL24 on goal, 3 scored

WSH22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	0	23:36	2:43
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	20:13	2:45
G. Landeskog	LW	1	0	1	2	3	1	+1	2	17:21	1:15
N. Roy	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	2	8:40	1:17
Z. Bardakov	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	4:28	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	22:50	3:18
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:47	1:15
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:48	2:45
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:39	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	13:52	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:14	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	4:57	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	19:45	1:10
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	25:06	2:50
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	20:31	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	19:24	0:42
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	17:29	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	16:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	22	20	2	.909	61:12	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McMichael	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:03	3:53
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	2	18:45	7:42
J. Sourdif	C	1	0	1	2	3	2	+1	0	17:22	3:08
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:31	3:54
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	24:46	4:09
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	24:10	4:08
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	20:37	0:18
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	16:53	0:24
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	15:05	4:17
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	7:09	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	5:44	0:13
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1:22	0:31
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	18:50	0:13
C. Hutson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	17:55	3:33
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	21:30	4:40
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	20:34	0:07
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	20:10	0:30
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	24	21	3	.875	61:05	OT loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon18:34M. Necas19:51G. Landeskog15:54

Line 2N. Kadri12:53B. Nelson13:11V. Nichushkin12:57

Line 3P. Kelly10:36J. Kiviranta11:09J. Drury10:47

Line 4N. Roy6:17G. Brindley4:57Z. Bardakov4:28

Pair 1B. Kulak17:10C. Makar19:12

Pair 2B. Burns14:43J. Manson13:26

Pair 3S. Malinski17:12D. Toews13:23

WSH

Line 1P. Dubois18:40T. Wilson18:04A. Protas17:19

Line 2J. Sourdif14:14C. McMichael13:36R. Leonard10:48

Line 3D. Strome10:26A. Beauvillier14:44A. Ovechkin10:36

Line 4B. Duhaime7:09H. Lapierre5:31

Pair 1T. Riemsdyk13:12J. Chychrun16:49

Pair 2M. Fehérváry16:40R. Sandin17:46

Pair 3M. Roy16:13C. Hutson14:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.4, WSH 2.8	COL 3, WSH 2
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	COL 31.8, WSH 26.1	COL 24, WSH 22
Win chance	COL 58%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	1	1.43	0	39%	0
COL N. Kadri	3.0	2	0.77	0	27%	0
COL M. Necas	2.9	2	1.10	2	31%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.7	2	0.85	1	34%	1
COL G. Landeskog	2.7	2	0.86	1	30%	1
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.6	3	0.70	1	31%	1
COL C. Makar	2.5	2	0.96	0	26%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.3	0	0.67	0	28%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.3	1	0.57	0	17%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	2	0.71	0	29%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.0	3	0.65	0	24%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.9	0	0.33	0	16%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.8	1	0.33	0	6%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.8	2	0.48	1	19%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.7	2	0.42	0	17%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.7	2	0.61	0	22%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.7	1	0.69	1	23%	0
COL B. Burns	1.6	3	0.33	0	9%	0
COL D. Toews	1.5	1	0.44	1	10%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.4	2	0.38	1	16%	1
COL J. Manson	1.3	3	0.31	0	7%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	0	0.30	0	13%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.2	1	0.31	0	15%	0
COL J. Drury	1.2	1	0.28	0	11%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	0	0.27	1	5%	0
COL N. Roy	1.1	1	0.34	1	13%	1
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	2	0.35	0	5%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	0	0.22	0	10%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.0	1	0.19	0	4%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.9	1	0.21	0	9%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.9	1	0.16	0	9%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.28	0	6%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.9	0	0.26	0	8%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	0	0.20	0	3%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.5	1	0.15	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.