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Game Recap
DAL4
BUF3
DAL beat BUF 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.03 expected goals to 3.17. E. Lindell led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Bunting had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Oettinger stopped 21 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| BUF | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 2:19DALM. Bourque0.16 xG
- 1st 12:48BUFJ. Norris0.04 xG
- 2nd 3:32BUFZ. BensonSH0.37 xG
- 2nd 4:24DALE. LindellPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 11:09BUFA. Tuch0.04 xG
- 2nd 16:00DALJ. Hryckowian0.08 xG
Team Stats
DALBUF
28Shots on goal24
2.03Expected goals3.17
50Shot attempts58
275v5 shots on goal18
1/3Power play0/3
21Hits23
14Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes6
11Giveaways13
8Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 2.03 xGBUF 3.17 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hryckowian | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:18 | 2:24 |
| M. Bourque | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:06 | 1:48 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:46 | 1:41 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:33 | 4:19 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:11 | 4:12 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:26 | 3:36 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:26 | 4:16 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:14 | 2:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:45 | 4:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:30 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 1:44 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 65:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Benson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:22 | 4:03 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:36 | 4:03 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 | 1:28 |
| J. Norris | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:55 | 4:03 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:29 | 4:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 | 1:57 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:57 | 3:01 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Dunne | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:17 | 1:56 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:35 | 2:01 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| Z. Metsa | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:43 | 1:28 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ellis | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DAL
Line 1M. Duchene12:48J. Robertson12:11M. Bourque14:21
Line 2W. Johnston12:36M. Rantanen13:02S. Steel13:49
Line 3J. Benn12:05J. Hryckowian12:43M. Bunting12:36
Pair 1T. Myers18:23L. Bichsel18:05
Pair 2T. Harley16:20N. Lundkvist17:37
Pair 3E. Lindell16:20I. Lyubushkin13:18
BUF
Line 1P. Krebs16:21J. Quinn14:42T. Pearson15:36
Line 2B. Malenstyn12:23J. Dunne11:34Z. Benson17:03
Line 4A. Tuch11:41J. Greenway13:57T. Kozak12:24
Pair 2B. Byram13:58C. Timmins15:02
Pair 3L. Stanley16:06M. Kesselring14:58
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.1, BUF 3.1 | DAL 4, BUF 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 24.7, BUF 26.9 | DAL 28, BUF 24 |
| Win chance | BUF 51% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.3 | 1 | 1.08 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.3 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.2 | 5 | 0.62 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.1 | 1 | 1.04 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 4 | 0.55 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.48 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.5 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bunting | 1.3 | 5 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.2 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.1 | 2 | 0.38 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL T. Myers | 1.1 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF M. Kesselring | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF L. Stanley | 1.0 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.0 | 3 | 0.29 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.0 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF T. Pearson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Metsa | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF L. Schenn | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF J. Dunne | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.