Game Recap: DAL 4, BUF 0, October 8, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

DAL4

FinalThu, Oct 8, 2026Every game that night

BUF0

DAL beat BUF 4-0, with the chances close: 2.20 expected goals to 2.12. BUF outshot DAL 26 to 18. M. Rantanen led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). R. Hintz had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Oettinger stopped 26 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	3	0	4
BUF	0	0	0	0

1st 9:03DALJ. Robertson0.12 xG
2nd 9:36DALS. Steel0.03 xG
2nd 13:57DALM. Rantanen0.27 xG
2nd 15:34DALR. HintzPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

DALBUF

18Shots on goal26

2.20Expected goals2.12

39Shot attempts63

135v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/3

22Hits23

17Blocked shots8

6Penalty minutes4

22Giveaways17

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.20 xGBUF 2.12 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL18 on goal, 4 scored

BUF26 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	1	3	4	2	1	0	+3	0	15:27	2:33
W. Johnston	C	0	3	3	1	0	0	+2	0	16:40	2:33
S. Steel	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	15:31	0:00
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	15:14	2:27
R. Hintz	C	1	0	1	6	0	1	+1	0	14:57	2:33
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:40	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:02	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	14:48	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:22	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:11	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:26	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:18	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	+3	0	23:35	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	2	18:08	0:06
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	21:57	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	19:40	2:33
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	2	17:34	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	26	26	0	1.000	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	6	0	0	0	0	19:08	3:03
Z. Benson	LW	4	2	0	-1	0	18:18	3:03
J. Quinn	RW	1	3	0	-2	2	18:01	3:19
N. Ostlund	C	2	0	0	0	0	17:05	2:59
R. McLeod	C	1	0	0	-2	0	16:57	2:57
J. Doan	RW	1	3	0	0	0	16:26	2:35
P. Krebs	C	1	3	0	0	0	16:16	0:00
J. Norris	C	3	1	0	-3	0	14:19	2:47
K. Helenius	C	1	0	1	-1	0	13:38	2:57
J. Danforth	RW	1	2	1	0	0	11:44	0:00
J.Kulich	C	0	1	0	0	0	11:42	0:05
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	5	0	0	2	9:55	0:10
R. Dahlin	D	1	1	4	-1	0	26:24	3:53
O. Power	D	2	0	0	-1	0	25:23	2:07
O. Zellweger	D	0	1	0	-1	0	17:43	0:05
M. Samuelsson	D	1	0	0	-1	0	17:39	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	1	0	1	-1	0	13:33	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	1	1	-1	0	13:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	18	14	4	.778	59:54	Loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1R. Hintz12:24J. Robertson12:47J. Benn12:26

Line 2W. Johnston14:01M. Rantanen12:54S. Steel13:01

Line 3J. Hryckowian14:14A. Hyry12:41T. Seguin15:34

Line 4R. Faksa10:50O. Bäck10:57C. Blackwell11:24

Pair 1T. Harley20:38N. Lundkvist17:56

Pair 2T. Myers15:28L. Bichsel16:21

Pair 3E. Lindell17:56M. Heiskanen15:13

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson15:57P. Krebs16:16J. Doan13:51

Line 2J. Quinn14:36Z. Benson14:03N. Ostlund14:00

Line 3B. Malenstyn9:45J. Danforth10:24R. McLeod12:38

Line 4J. Norris10:25K. Helenius10:41J.Kulich11:33

Pair 1R. Dahlin22:25O. Power22:07

Pair 2L. Crevier11:57Z. Metsa12:20

Pair 3M. Samuelsson16:15O. Zellweger17:32

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 15 overs hit (40%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DAL J. Robertson	3.5	+126	-165	4	Over
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	+120	-140	6	Over
BUF J. Quinn	2.5	+110	-140	1	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	+142	-165	2	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	+125	-138	1	Under
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	+104	-115	1	Under
BUF J. Doan	1.5	-130	+115	1	Under
BUF J. Norris	1.5	-105	-125	3	Over
BUF J.Kulich	1.5	+115	-150	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.5	-155	+130	1	Under
BUF O. Power	1.5	+115	-145	2	Over
DAL R. Hintz	1.5	-180	+135	6	Over
DAL T. Harley	1.5	+100	-110	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	1.5	+100	-110	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	-130	+110	4	Over

4 of 36 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+1200	-2000	0	Under
DAL C. Blackwell	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+475	-650	0	Under
BUF J. Danforth	0.5	+1200	-2000	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+480	-900	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+320	-420	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+250	-390	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+150	-190	1	Over
BUF J.Kulich	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
BUF K. Helenius	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
DAL L. Bichsel	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+215	-260	1	Over
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+1200	-3500	0	Under
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	+1200	-2000	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+380	-600	0	Under
DAL R. Faksa	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+240	-320	1	Over
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+500	-900	1	Over
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
DAL T. Myers	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+330	-450	0	Under
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	+1550	-5000	0	Under

3 of 21 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+205	-235	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+115	-140	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+100	-115	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-113	-105	3	Over
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-110	-115	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+160	-175	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+215	-250	1	Over
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+285	-350	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+130	-165	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+145	-165	3	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+215	-275	0	Under

6 of 21 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+215	-300	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+150	-205	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+120	-145	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+115	-135	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	-205	+170	1	Over
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	-132	+110	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-210	+180	4	Over
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+140	-150	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+155	-190	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+205	-280	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-145	+130	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	-125	+120	1	Over
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+155	-165	1	Over
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+145	-150	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	-170	+150	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	-155	+145	3	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+110	-120	0	Under

3 of 15 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+450	-400	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+235	-350	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+140	-190	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+230	-240	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+140	-190	1	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+225	-260	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+220	-295	1	Over
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+200	-235	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+280	-375	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
DAL J. Oettinger	22.5	+100	-125	26	Over
BUF U. Luukkonen	21.5	-122	-105	14	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.1, BUF 3.2	DAL 4, BUF 0
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	DAL 24.8, BUF 27.7	DAL 18, BUF 26
Win chance	BUF 52%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	6	0.98	0	38%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.9	1	0.96	0	21%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.8	4	0.99	1	35%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.6	1	0.95	3	38%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.6	1	0.70	0	24%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	2	1.16	4	36%	1
BUF J.Kulich	2.1	0	0.47	0	22%	0
BUF Z. Benson	2.1	4	0.70	0	21%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	1	0.73	0	12%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	6	0.77	1	28%	1
BUF K. Helenius	1.8	1	0.42	0	17%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.6	0	0.55	0	22%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.6	1	0.49	0	18%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	2	0.52	0	9%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.5	0	0.43	1	9%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.5	3	0.55	0	24%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.4	1	0.45	1	15%	1
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	1	0.41	0	10%	0
BUF L. Crevier	1.3	0	0.27	0	7%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.3	1	0.50	0	14%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.2	0	0.49	0	18%	0
BUF O. Zellweger	1.2	0	0.23	0	7%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	2	0.50	0	18%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.2	0	0.24	0	13%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	0	0.31	0	6%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	0	0.37	0	16%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.1	0	0.18	0	3%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.0	0	0.23	1	4%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.0	1	0.51	0	16%	0
BUF J. Danforth	1.0	1	0.26	0	12%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	0.9	2	0.20	0	9%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.8	1	0.24	0	8%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	0	0.16	0	6%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.7	0	0.14	0	6%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.19	0	8%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	1	0.16	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.