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Game Recap
DAL0
CBJ1
CBJ beat DAL 1-0 despite fewer good chances: 1.64 expected goals to 2.70. M. Olivier had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Greaves stopped 28 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 8:48CBJZ. Werenski0.03 xG
Team Stats
DALCBJ
28Shots on goal22
2.70Expected goals1.64
61Shot attempts44
225v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play0/1
7Hits35
10Blocked shots17
2Penalty minutes2
14Giveaways14
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 2.70 xGCBJ 1.64 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:14 | 2:59 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:21 | 2:54 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 2:56 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:50 | 2:55 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 1:01 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:57 | 1:06 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:57 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:03 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:15 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:37 | 0:04 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:43 | 3:15 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:46 | 0:56 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:50 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:04 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 56:47 | Loss |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:12 | 0:53 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:11 | 0:54 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 | 1:06 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:06 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:54 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 | 1:07 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:54 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:43 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:37 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 27:45 | 1:03 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 27:21 | 1:06 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:02 | 0:57 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 28 | 28 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DAL
Line 1M. Duchene15:49S. Steel15:40W. Johnston16:14
Line 2J. Robertson17:01R. Hintz14:20M. Bourque15:56
Line 3J. Benn11:13J. Hryckowian14:07O. Bäck10:06
Line 4C. Blackwell7:30N. Bastian7:33R. Faksa6:17
Pair 1E. Lindell18:00M. Heiskanen18:21
Pair 2N. Lundkvist16:49T. Harley21:33
Pair 3A. Petrovic12:04I. Lyubushkin14:27
CBJ
Line 1M. Marchment17:04K. Marchenko16:36A. Fantilli17:13
Line 2C. Coyle16:12C. Sillinger14:11M. Olivier14:53
Line 3B. Jenner12:36S. Monahan12:21K. Johnson10:21
Line 4D. Voronkov6:43D. Heinen6:37I. Lundestrom6:42
Pair 1D. Severson23:33Z. Werenski23:12
Pair 2E. Gudbranson16:56I. Provorov18:42
Pair 3J. Christiansen9:50E. Zamula9:18
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.3, CBJ 3.1 | DAL 0, CBJ 1 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 26.8, CBJ 30.0 | DAL 28, CBJ 22 |
| Win chance | DAL 53% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.6 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.3 | 2 | 1.09 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.8 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.7 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.4 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.3 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.3 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Marchment | 2.0 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.0 | 4 | 0.71 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.9 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.8 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.7 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.7 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.6 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.2 | 5 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Heinen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL N. Bastian | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Zamula | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.