Game Recap: DAL 3, COL 6, January 18, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL3

FinalSat, Jan 18, 2025Every game that night

COL6

COL beat DAL 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.35 expected goals to 2.38. A. Lehkonen led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). J. Robertson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Wedgewood stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	0	2	3
COL	1	3	2	6

1st 3:24DALM. DuchenePP0.09 xG
1st 13:07COLC. Mittelstadt0.14 xG
2nd 10:31COLC. MakarPP0.03 xG
2nd 11:56COLA. Lehkonen0.10 xG
2nd 18:30COLJ. Drouin0.03 xG
3rd 8:13COLA. Lehkonen0.12 xG
3rd 11:08DALJ. Robertson0.08 xG
3rd 11:47DALJ. RobertsonPP0.12 xG
3rd 13:13COLC. Makar0.10 xG

Team Stats

DALCOL

29Shots on goal36

2.38Expected goals3.35

64Shot attempts80

205v5 shots on goal31

2/4Power play1/3

11Hits17

23Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes8

11Giveaways12

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.38 xGCOL 3.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL28 on goal, 3 scored

COL36 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	0	3	3	2	1	1	-1	0	20:11	4:10
J. Robertson	LW	2	1	3	6	0	0	-1	0	19:42	4:11
M. Duchene	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	-2	0	17:29	4:04
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	3	0	3	-2	0	17:30	4:04
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:23	0:47
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:50	0:23
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	13:42	0:18
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:36	0:00
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	13:16	0:17
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	12:10	0:00
M. Blümel	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:09	0:23
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:20	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	17:49	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	22:27	4:34
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	21:41	0:17
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	21:09	0:20
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-2	0	16:31	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	16:30	0:27

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	36	30	6	.833	59:13	Loss
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lehkonen	LW	2	2	4	4	0	0	+4	0	18:51	4:00
J. Drouin	LW	1	2	3	5	0	0	+4	0	17:53	4:14
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	2	3	3	1	0	+3	0	13:58	1:00
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	20:45	4:01
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	20:35	4:16
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:17	1:02
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:01	0:03
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	15:28	0:05
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	14:32	0:07
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:07	1:18
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:48	0:00
J. Innala	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:42	0:00
C. Makar	D	2	0	2	2	1	0	+2	0	20:18	4:08
J. Manson	D	0	2	2	0	1	2	+1	4	19:54	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	1	5	+3	2	23:59	1:14
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	4	2	2	+1	0	22:27	1:22
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	0	16:23	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	29	26	3	.897	59:49	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoel Kiviranta DAL Faces COL, his team until May 20262 SOG
Old teamMikko Rantanen DAL Faces COL, his team until Jan 20251 A, 2 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces DAL, his team until Jun 202426 saves on 29, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.1, COL 3.0	DAL 3, COL 6
Total goals	6.1	9
Shots on goal	DAL 28.7, COL 28.4	DAL 29, COL 36
Win chance	DAL 51%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.7	3	1.38	1	38%	0
COL C. Makar	2.9	2	0.94	2	21%	2
DAL W. Johnston	2.7	2	0.76	3	29%	0
COL M. Rantanen	2.6	2	1.12	1	37%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.5	6	0.92	3	31%	2
DAL L. Stankoven	2.4	1	0.50	0	16%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	4	0.69	4	30%	2
DAL J. Benn	2.1	3	0.77	0	25%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	2	0.59	0	10%	0
DAL M. Duchene	2.0	3	0.83	2	30%	1
COL D. Toews	2.0	3	0.55	0	11%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.8	2	0.46	0	10%	0
COL R. Colton	1.8	1	0.45	0	21%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.6	2	0.49	0	18%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.6	5	0.71	3	18%	1
COL J. Manson	1.5	0	0.29	2	7%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.3	2	0.34	0	14%	0
COL S. Girard	1.3	4	0.32	0	5%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	1	0.37	0	12%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.2	1	0.22	0	4%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.2	2	0.32	0	12%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.2	3	0.52	3	16%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	1	0.27	0	6%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	2	0.26	0	12%	0
DAL M. Blümel	1.1	1	0.15	0	9%	0
COL K. Middleton	0.9	3	0.05	0	2%	0
COL C. Haan	0.9	2	0.15	0	3%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.8	0	0.12	0	3%	0
COL J. Parssinen	0.7	0	0.25	0	10%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	1	0.28	0	10%	0
COL I. Ivan	0.6	0	0.16	0	9%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.5	0	0.15	1	2%	0
COL J. Innala	0.4	0	0.08	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.