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Game Recap
DAL2
FLA4
FLA beat DAL 4-2, with the chances close: 2.44 expected goals to 2.29. S. Reinhart led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Stankoven had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. S. Knight stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 14:45FLAE. Rodrigues0.04 xG
- 2nd 8:47FLAM. TkachukPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 11:22DALE. DadonovPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 11:56DALM. Duchene0.19 xG
- 3rd 2:32FLAA. Greer0.03 xG
- 3rd 19:00FLAS. ReinhartEN0.42 xG
Team Stats
DALFLA
25Shots on goal25
2.29Expected goals2.44
58Shot attempts38
195v5 shots on goal14
1/4Power play1/4
26Hits22
6Blocked shots16
15Penalty minutes15
32Giveaways16
5Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 2.29 xGFLA 2.44 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:14 | 2:43 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:48 | 2:19 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 2:18 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:30 | 3:44 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:38 | 3:22 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:25 | 3:33 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 3:18 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12:40 | 1:55 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:57 | 1:02 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:32 | 4:36 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:20 | 2:05 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:05 | 0:25 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 59:19 | Loss |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:29 | 4:20 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 20:13 | 4:15 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:25 | 4:18 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:27 | 1:43 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:46 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:11 |
| A. Greer | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:11 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 1:32 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 4:23 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:34 | 0:48 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:14 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 4:20 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:23 | 0:07 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:49 | 0:48 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 18:55 | 1:31 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13:36 | 0:48 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 59:34 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 2.9, FLA 3.0 | DAL 2, FLA 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 27.0, FLA 29.5 | DAL 25, FLA 25 |
| Win chance | FLA 51% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.1 | 3 | 0.79 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.9 | 4 | 0.91 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 4 | 0.86 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.4 | 4 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.4 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.4 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.2 | 0 | 0.90 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.0 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.8 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.8 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 1.8 | 5 | 0.49 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.7 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.7 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 2 | 0.63 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.7 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 1.0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.