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Game Recap
DAL4
FinalSat, Feb 22, 2025Every game that night
NJD2

DAL beat NJD 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.42 expected goals to 3.95. J. Hughes led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Hamilton had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. C. DeSmith stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
DAL2024
NJD0022
  1. 1st 3:58DALE. Dadonov0.39 xG
  2. 1st 5:44DALT. HarleyPP0.10 xG
  3. 3rd 10:00NJDJ. HughesPP0.18 xG
  4. 3rd 10:35DALM. Duchene0.08 xG
  5. 3rd 11:40NJDJ. Hughes0.03 xG
  6. 3rd 19:51DALW. JohnstonEN0.88 xG

Team Stats

DALNJD
26Shots on goal33
3.42Expected goals3.95
51Shot attempts81
235v5 shots on goal23
1/3Power play1/4
13Hits30
21Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways10
2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.42 xGNJD 3.95 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdDAL goal, 3:58DAL goal, 5:44NJD goal, 10:00DAL goal, 10:35NJD goal, 11:40DAL goal, 19:51

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL26 on goal, 4 scored
NJD33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
W. JohnstonC1123020017:522:16
M. DucheneC112411+1016:472:39
J. BennLW011021+2015:141:25
M. BourqueC011000+1014:440:00
E. DadonovLW101301+2012:330:33
M. GranlundC0001020016:542:20
R. HintzC0000030016:181:56
M. MarchmentLW0001000015:021:25
J. RobertsonLW000301-1014:452:35
S. SteelC0002010013:590:11
L. StankovenC0001000012:271:26
O. BäckC0000100011:140:00
T. HarleyD101402+2224:222:44
M. DumbaD011000+1014:450:39
E. LindellD0002130022:130:52
C. CeciD0001210219:530:00
I. LyubushkinD0001030419:070:00
L. BichselD000060+1016:250:14
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. DeSmith33312.93960:00Win
J. Oettinger000–0:00

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. HughesC202601-1024:534:23
J. BrattLW022220-1019:183:54
N. HischierC0001020420:153:46
T. MeierRW000430-1018:322:10
S. NoesenRW000132-1018:093:43
D. MercerC0000100015:591:01
P. CotterLW000110-1013:240:45
E. HaulaLW000130-1012:550:06
O. PalatLW000310-2012:061:19
N. BastianRW000150009:300:09
C. LazarC000021008:260:16
T. TatarLW000100008:180:12
D. HamiltonD0228210022:583:52
L. HughesD000114-1022:461:11
B. PesceD000111-1019:460:30
J. KovacevicD0001110019:120:19
B. DillonD0001400218:040:09
S. NemecD000000-1012:130:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Allen25223.88059:01Loss
N. Daws000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreDAL 2.9, NJD 2.7DAL 4, NJD 2
Total goals5.66
Shots on goalDAL 27.0, NJD 27.3DAL 26, NJD 33
Win chanceDAL 53%DAL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.561.04234%2
NJD D. Hamilton2.780.51213%0
NJD T. Meier2.640.65028%0
DAL W. Johnston2.430.69227%1
NJD N. Hischier2.410.80028%0
DAL J. Robertson2.430.80029%0
NJD J. Bratt2.320.91226%0
DAL T. Harley2.040.51112%1
DAL L. Stankoven1.910.35013%0
DAL R. Hintz1.900.63029%0
DAL M. Marchment1.810.51021%0
NJD S. Noesen1.810.48020%0
DAL M. Duchene1.840.72227%1
DAL M. Granlund1.710.62015%0
NJD L. Hughes1.710.4308%0
DAL J. Benn1.700.57120%0
NJD D. Mercer1.600.44021%0
NJD E. Haula1.610.34015%0
DAL E. Dadonov1.530.45117%1
NJD B. Pesce1.410.2105%0
DAL E. Lindell1.320.3107%0
NJD O. Palat1.330.41017%0
DAL M. Bourque1.300.34116%0
NJD P. Cotter1.210.33016%0
DAL S. Steel1.220.30011%0
DAL C. Ceci1.110.2605%0
NJD N. Bastian1.110.25011%0
DAL L. Bichsel1.000.2907%0
NJD T. Tatar1.010.30013%0
NJD S. Nemec1.000.1904%0
NJD J. Kovacevic1.010.1904%0
DAL M. Dumba0.900.1414%0
NJD C. Lazar0.900.2208%0
NJD B. Dillon0.810.2205%0
DAL O. Bäck0.600.2409%0
DAL I. Lyubushkin0.610.1702%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.