Game Recap: DAL 3, OTT 2 (OT), November 11, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL3

Final/OTTue, Nov 11, 2025Every game that night

OTT2

DAL beat OTT 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.85 expected goals to 2.69. J. Robertson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Kleven had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Oettinger stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DAL	0	1	1	1	3
OTT	2	0	0	0	2

1st 0:49OTTD. Batherson0.04 xG
1st 8:53OTTN. Jensen0.21 xG
2nd 16:22DALM. Rantanen0.19 xG
3rd 8:00DALJ. RobertsonPP0.07 xG
OT 3:04DALR. Hintz0.53 xG

Team Stats

DALOTT

33Shots on goal29

2.85Expected goals2.69

55Shot attempts49

235v5 shots on goal25

1/3Power play0/2

24Hits15

10Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways11

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.85 xGOTT 2.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL31 on goal, 3 scored

OTT28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	1	2	3	6	3	0	+1	0	20:11	4:20
M. Rantanen	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	-1	0	21:43	4:19
R. Hintz	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	16:07	4:13
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	23:33	4:13
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:42	0:58
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:53	1:03
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:11	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:00	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:26	0:57
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:38	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	8:56	0:00
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	8:36	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	2	2	4	0	2	+2	0	28:50	4:13
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	24:12	1:06
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	23:38	1:02
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:47	0:01
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:31	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	4	12:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	29	27	2	.931	63:04	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	2	19:52	2:20
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:36	2:41
M. Amadio	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:22	0:09
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	22:23	2:50
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	20:48	1:08
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	17:01	2:47
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:20	1:07
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	4	15:24	1:13
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:20	1:03
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:22	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:24	0:00
H. Hodgson	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:04	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	29:03	2:26
N. Jensen	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	19:18	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	25:27	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	22:38	0:01
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:42	1:33
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:51	0:42

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	33	30	3	.909	63:04	OT loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1W. Johnston18:04M. Rantanen16:33S. Steel14:40

Line 2O. Bäck12:50J. Hryckowian13:41M. Bourque12:29

Line 3T. Seguin13:29R. Hintz10:26J. Robertson14:27

Line 4R. Faksa7:03A. Erne8:36C. Blackwell9:29

Pair 1E. Lindell18:54M. Heiskanen20:44

Pair 2T. Harley21:02I. Lyubushkin15:19

Pair 3A. Petrovic13:31L. Bichsel12:18

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson16:01T. Stützle16:06D. Perron15:09

Line 2M. Amadio14:13S. Pinto14:47C. Giroux12:05

Line 3F. Zetterlund13:13D. Cozens12:41R. Greig12:34

Line 4L. Eller8:39H. Hodgson7:04N. Cousins9:24

Pair 1N. Jensen18:23T. Kleven22:50

Pair 2J. Sanderson21:01A. Zub18:39

Pair 3T. Chabot5:46J. Spence15:00

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.9, OTT 3.0	DAL 3, OTT 2
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	DAL 24.5, OTT 28.9	DAL 33, OTT 29
Win chance	OTT 52%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	2.9	6	1.03	3	35%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.7	3	1.14	2	37%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	2	0.84	0	34%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.3	1	0.53	1	9%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	3	0.68	0	27%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.2	2	0.84	1	31%	1
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	1	0.62	0	21%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	5	0.77	1	24%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	3	0.86	0	25%	0
DAL T. Seguin	2.1	2	0.68	0	27%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.0	0	0.55	0	11%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	4	0.69	2	11%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.7	1	0.34	0	15%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	3	0.48	0	17%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	3	0.64	1	20%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.6	1	0.56	0	21%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.4	3	0.47	0	10%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.4	1	0.32	0	14%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	0	0.43	1	20%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.3	3	0.44	0	14%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.3	1	0.34	0	4%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.2	0	0.34	0	13%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	0	0.28	0	5%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	5	0.15	0	3%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	1	0.29	0	7%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	1	0.25	0	10%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
OTT H. Hodgson	1.0	0	0.25	0	9%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	1	0.21	1	3%	1
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.9	0	0.19	0	11%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.7	2	0.13	0	3%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	0	0.14	0	4%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.7	2	0.17	0	8%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	1	0.21	0	8%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.17	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	1	0.22	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.