DAL beat PIT 7-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.14 expected goals to 1.76. DAL outshot PIT 40 to 21. M. Marchment led the way with 5 points (1 G, 4 A). W. Johnston had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Oettinger stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 2:33DALM. Duchene0.07 xG
- 1st 7:13DALL. Stankoven0.02 xG
- 1st 10:16DALM. Marchment0.28 xG
- 1st 13:09DALM. Heiskanen0.05 xG
- 1st 14:37DALM. Heiskanen0.22 xG
- 1st 18:39DALT. SeguinPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 15:03PITA. Beauvillier0.11 xG
- 3rd 15:10DALW. JohnstonPP0.09 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 4.14 xGPIT 1.76 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marchment | LW | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:20 | 3:32 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:59 | 3:35 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:39 | 3:18 |
| T. Seguin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:28 | 3:12 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:17 | 2:04 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:47 | 2:44 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:52 | 3:01 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:19 | 2:44 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:40 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 22:40 | 4:55 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 21:17 | 0:03 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 1:32 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 59:30 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:55 |
| V. Puustinen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 17:59 | 1:05 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 17:04 | 1:05 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:20 | 0:56 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:57 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:55 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:53 | 1:04 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 22:23 | 1:03 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:08 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:12 | 1:12 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:48 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Blomqvist | 8 | 5 | 3 | .625 | 10:16 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 32 | 28 | 4 | .875 | 49:44 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.3, PIT 3.0 | DAL 7, PIT 1 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 30.3, PIT 30.5 | DAL 40, PIT 21 |
| Win chance | DAL 55% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.9 | 2 | 1.05 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.6 | 8 | 0.73 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.6 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.6 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.4 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.4 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 7 | 0.71 | 2 | 11% | 2 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 2.0 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.9 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.8 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.8 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 1 | 0.73 | 3 | 27% | 1 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.7 | 2 | 0.57 | 5 | 21% | 1 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT L. Eller | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.5 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.5 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.3 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.1 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT V. Puustinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 0.9 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT J. Ivany | 0.8 | 0 | 0.08 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.