Game Recap: DAL 6, PIT 3, March 28, 2026

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Game Recap

DAL6

FinalSat, Mar 28, 2026Every game that night

PIT3

DAL beat PIT 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.29 expected goals to 2.31. DAL outshot PIT 26 to 12. M. Bourque led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Oettinger stopped 9 of 12.

Team Stats

DALPIT

26Shots on goal12

3.29Expected goals2.31

52Shot attempts57

165v5 shots on goal9

2/5Power play1/4

12Hits19

24Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways17

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.29 xGPIT 2.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL25 on goal, 5 scored

PIT12 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Bourque	C	2	1	3	2	0	1	+3	0	19:02	1:39
J. Robertson	LW	1	1	2	5	0	1	+1	0	21:03	6:14
M. Rantanen	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	-1	0	18:57	6:28
J. Benn	LW	0	2	2	1	2	0	+1	2	12:08	0:39
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:33	5:25
J. Hryckowian	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	15:55	1:44
C. Blackwell	C	0	1	1	3	2	2	0	2	15:36	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	12:27	0:08
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	19:01	5:28
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	12:23	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	12:14	0:10
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4:02	0:08
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	2	0	4	0	0	25:38	5:35
E. Lindell	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	22:20	1:05
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	0	3	3	+2	0	16:17	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+3	0	14:12	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	20:44	1:42
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	14:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	12	9	3	.750	59:23	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-3	0	21:45	4:45
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	-3	2	17:17	4:16
N. Acciari	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	13:09	0:00
E. Soderblom	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+2	2	8:48	0:00
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-3	0	21:33	4:25
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	18:36	4:17
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	15:35	0:02
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:14	1:49
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:57	2:03
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	12:02	2:00
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:36	1:31
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	10:41	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	1	2	3	1	1	1	-1	0	24:47	4:03
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	2	17:11	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	21:50	2:15
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:49	0:04
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	16:42	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	16:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	24	20	4	.833	58:32	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson14:06M. Bourque15:53M. Duchene11:47

Line 2M. Rantanen11:52W. Johnston13:08M. Bunting12:01

Line 3J. Benn10:07C. Blackwell12:15J. Hryckowian10:31

Line 4A. Hyry8:40O. Bäck8:37N. Bastian3:54

Pair 1E. Lindell15:19M. Heiskanen14:11

Pair 2T. Harley17:06N. Lundkvist14:47

Pair 3T. Myers13:52L. Bichsel13:34

PIT

Line 1B. Rust13:15R. Rakell13:30A. Mantha11:39

Line 2E. Chinakhov13:24T. Novak13:04J. Brazeau9:42

Line 3V. Koivunen9:17R. McGroarty10:04B. Kindel10:26

Line 4C. Dewar11:35E. Soderblom8:26N. Acciari9:05

Pair 1K. Letang17:37S. Girard16:03

Pair 2E. Karlsson16:56P. Wotherspoon14:52

Pair 3C. Clifton11:46R. Shea10:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayColin Blackwell DAL Turns 33 that day1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.0, PIT 2.9	DAL 6, PIT 3
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	DAL 24.7, PIT 28.0	DAL 26, PIT 12
Win chance	DAL 51%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.3	5	1.14	2	39%	1
PIT B. Rust	2.6	2	0.84	0	30%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	1	0.75	3	15%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	1	0.77	1	28%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	0	0.89	0	34%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.4	3	0.60	0	23%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	3	1.11	2	34%	1
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.9	2	0.71	1	12%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.9	2	0.49	3	19%	2
PIT A. Mantha	1.8	1	0.68	1	25%	1
PIT B. Kindel	1.8	1	0.41	0	18%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.7	2	0.82	1	27%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.7	0	0.53	0	21%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.7	0	0.55	0	13%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	0	0.41	0	9%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.6	1	0.69	2	23%	0
DAL M. Bunting	1.6	0	0.43	0	18%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	0	0.34	0	14%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.3	0	0.35	0	15%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.3	2	0.25	1	12%	1
PIT R. McGroarty	1.3	0	0.25	0	10%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.2	1	0.42	1	16%	1
PIT E. Soderblom	1.2	0	0.22	1	11%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.2	0	0.23	0	5%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	3	0.24	1	10%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.0	0	0.19	1	4%	0
PIT S. Girard	1.0	0	0.30	0	6%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.0	3	0.18	0	8%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.0	0	0.31	1	7%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	0	0.29	1	3%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.27	0	5%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	0.8	1	0.21	0	6%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.7	0	0.18	0	9%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	2	0.17	1	7%	1
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	2	0.18	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.