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Game Recap
DAL4
TBL2
DAL beat TBL 4-2, with the chances close: 2.50 expected goals to 2.83. A. Cirelli led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Cirelli had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Oettinger stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| TBL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 4:09TBLA. Cirelli0.40 xG
- 1st 6:05DALE. Dadonov0.09 xG
- 1st 8:34TBLA. Cirelli0.45 xG
- 1st 15:49DALM. Heiskanen0.13 xG
- 3rd 6:55DALM. Duchene0.04 xG
- 3rd 7:53DALR. HintzPP0.26 xG
Team Stats
DALTBL
28Shots on goal29
2.50Expected goals2.83
51Shot attempts51
245v5 shots on goal23
1/3Power play0/3
10Hits31
16Blocked shots9
6Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways15
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 2.50 xGTBL 2.83 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:52 | 1:14 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:16 | 2:38 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:23 | 2:38 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:31 | 2:35 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:17 | 1:26 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:04 | 2:38 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:47 | 1:26 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:19 | 1:23 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 27:52 | 4:04 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 18:58 | 0:03 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 25:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 21:43 | 0:15 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Cirelli | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:50 | 2:58 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:33 | 3:26 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:11 | 2:20 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:41 | 3:12 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21:40 | 3:08 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:05 | 2:50 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 2:24 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:29 | 2:05 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:07 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:20 | 3:09 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:05 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:03 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 2:25 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 57:14 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.3, TBL 3.0 | DAL 4, TBL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 29.9, TBL 26.8 | DAL 28, TBL 29 |
| Win chance | DAL 55% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.2 | 1 | 1.49 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 0 | 0.95 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.3 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.3 | 3 | 0.89 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 5 | 0.57 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.73 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.1 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.8 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 2 | 0.74 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.7 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 8 | 0.67 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.4 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 1.0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.