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Game Recap
DAL1
TBL2
TBL beat DAL 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.78 expected goals to 2.23. TBL outshot DAL 33 to 21. J. Robertson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TBL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 15:02TBLB. HagelPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 2:03DALA. Erne0.08 xG
- OT 2:36TBLA. Cirelli0.28 xG
Team Stats
DALTBL
21Shots on goal33
2.23Expected goals4.78
44Shot attempts70
135v5 shots on goal23
0/3Power play1/4
30Hits21
10Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways17
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 2.23 xGTBL 4.78 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| A. Erne | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 26:49 | 4:37 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:37 | 4:37 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:17 | 4:37 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 | 4:37 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 0:22 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:22 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:22 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:58 | 3:01 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:32 | 1:58 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:59 | 0:22 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 62:16 | OT loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:32 | 2:57 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:57 | 3:40 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:06 | 2:47 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:42 | 4:51 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:56 | 5:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:51 | 5:03 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:07 | 0:01 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:11 | 3:42 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:01 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:02 | 2:29 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 2:33 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:14 | 4:25 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17:04 | 0:03 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 1:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 62:36 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DAL
Line 1J. Robertson17:41W. Johnston19:12M. Bourque14:44
Line 2T. Seguin15:30M. Rantanen16:50S. Steel15:32
Line 3A. Erne9:48N. Bastian7:12R. Faksa8:17
Line 4C. Blackwell7:23J. Hryckowian8:29
Pair 1T. Harley19:42I. Lyubushkin13:42
Pair 2M. Heiskanen16:00E. Lindell14:48
Pair 3A. Petrovic11:12L. Bichsel11:12
TBL
Line 1J. Guentzel14:51B. Point14:53N. Kucherov15:44
Line 2A. Cirelli12:49B. Hagel15:32O. Bjorkstrand9:21
Line 3Y. Gourde14:09Z. Girgensons13:26P. Holmberg12:27
Line 4G. Goncalves9:13D. James8:11
Pair 1R. McDonagh14:12E. Cernak14:39
Pair 2C. D'Astous13:17E. Lilleberg12:49
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 2.9, TBL 3.3 | DAL 1, TBL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 25.4, TBL 29.0 | DAL 21, TBL 33 |
| Win chance | TBL 58% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 5 | 1.50 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.0 | 1 | 1.05 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.9 | 6 | 0.99 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.6 | 0 | 1.03 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.6 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 4 | 0.77 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 3 | 0.99 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.0 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 4 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 0.8 | 2 | 0.07 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL N. Bastian | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.