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Game Recap
DAL2
WSH3
WSH beat DAL 3-2, with the chances close: 2.82 expected goals to 2.35. A. Protas had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. C. Lindgren stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| WSH | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 12:19DALC. BlackwellSH0.18 xG
- 2nd 0:55WSHT. Wilson0.09 xG
- 2nd 6:15WSHD. Strome0.05 xG
- 2nd 13:09DALJ. Robertson0.17 xG
- 2nd 17:19WSHT. Raddysh0.02 xG
Team Stats
DALWSH
24Shots on goal26
2.35Expected goals2.82
64Shot attempts51
165v5 shots on goal19
0/4Power play0/5
10Hits26
12Blocked shots26
8Penalty minutes8
17Giveaways16
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 2.35 xGWSH 2.82 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:37 | 3:42 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 | 4:01 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:13 | 4:03 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:59 | 3:52 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:46 | 3:20 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:23 | 2:58 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:47 | 2:59 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:09 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 2:54 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:39 | 4:22 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 24:02 | 2:40 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 16:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 57:57 | Loss |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 5:02 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 | 5:59 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:51 | 3:40 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 6:01 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:06 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:16 | 8:50 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 16:27 | 0:11 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:03 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:52 | 2:48 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 2:58 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:44 | 5:33 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:47 | 3:29 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:13 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -1 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:03 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:55 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 60:00 | Win |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.2, WSH 2.6 | DAL 2, WSH 3 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 29.1, WSH 25.4 | DAL 24, WSH 26 |
| Win chance | DAL 60% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.8 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.7 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 2 | 0.99 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 1.9 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.9 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.8 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.6 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.4 | 4 | 0.34 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.9 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.