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Game Recap
DET2
FinalFri, Oct 31, 2025Every game that night
ANA5

ANA beat DET 5-2, with the chances close: 4.02 expected goals to 3.47. L. Carlsson led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). A. DeBrincat had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. L. Dostal stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
DET1102
ANA2125
  1. 1st 4:53ANAT. TerrySH0.19 xG
  2. 1st 8:19DETL. Raymond0.20 xG
  3. 1st 12:24ANAL. Carlsson0.14 xG
  4. 2nd 6:35ANAM. McTavish0.10 xG
  5. 2nd 15:25DETA. DeBrincatPP0.20 xG
  6. 3rd 0:55ANAC. KreiderPP0.46 xG
  7. 3rd 17:28ANAT. TerryEN0.53 xG

Team Stats

DETANA
30Shots on goal32
3.47Expected goals4.02
61Shot attempts57
185v5 shots on goal22
1/7Power play1/5
16Hits21
10Blocked shots12
10Penalty minutes14
22Giveaways22
3Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 3.47 xGANA 4.02 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdANA goal, 4:53DET goal, 8:19ANA goal, 12:24ANA goal, 6:35DET goal, 15:25ANA goal, 0:55ANA goal, 17:28

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET30 on goal, 2 scored
ANA32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. DeBrincatRW1127000017:328:00
L. RaymondLW1123100017:077:47
D. LarkinC0113000019:358:03
E. FinnieC000100-1019:147:50
J. CompherLW000000-1015:101:23
M. KasperC000321-2014:412:51
A. CoppC000000-2214:342:04
M. AppletonC000100-1013:530:17
J. van RiemsdykLW000100-2213:312:38
M. RasmussenC0001000212:550:17
E. SoderblomLW0002200012:130:17
J. BerggrenRW000201-3011:481:55
M. SeiderD011232-1225:009:02
S. EdvinssonD000101-1220:040:37
B. ChiarotD000150-1018:170:09
A. Sandin-PellikkaD000000-1015:501:52
A. JohanssonD0002130015:450:08
T. HamonicD0000220014:400:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Gibson31274.87159:45Loss
C. Talbot000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CarlssonC134201+3015:443:39
T. TerryRW213400+3017:173:51
C. GauthierLW022600+3218:213:51
M. McTavishC101200+1017:241:40
C. KreiderLW1013000613:283:49
A. KillornLW0001100016:581:29
B. SenneckeRW000210+1216:251:17
R. PoehlingC000101-1015:020:00
N. NesterenkoC0002200012:340:00
F. VatranoRW000311-1010:490:15
R. JohnstonLW000061008:250:00
S. ColangeloRW000100-128:220:00
J. TroubaD011272+1026:250:59
D. HellesonD011021+1018:340:00
O. ZellwegerD011102+2216:230:50
J. LaCombeD0001030023:583:30
P. MintyukovD000010+1019:310:48
I. MooreD000100+1010:220:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal30282.93359:50Win
P. Mrazek000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1M. Rasmussen11:43E. Soderblom11:56J. Riemsdyk10:40
Line 2A. Copp10:20J. Compher11:03J. Berggren9:51
Line 3M. Appleton10:56M. Kasper10:07A. DeBrincat8:58
Line 4L. Raymond8:44E. Finnie10:10D. Larkin8:16
Pair 1S. Edvinsson16:17M. Seider14:25
Pair 2B. Chiarot15:27A. Sandin-Pellikka12:23
Pair 3T. Hamonic10:53A. Johansson11:56

ANA

Line 1M. McTavish13:33B. Sennecke13:35C. Gauthier13:22
Line 2C. Kreider9:29L. Carlsson9:35T. Terry9:04
Line 3F. Vatrano9:28R. Poehling8:42A. Killorn9:04
Line 4R. Johnston8:25N. Nesterenko9:37S. Colangelo8:22
Pair 1J. LaCombe11:22D. Helleson14:25
Pair 2O. Zellweger14:25I. Moore10:22
Pair 3J. Trouba15:54P. Mintyukov15:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamJohn Gibson DET Faces ANA, his team until Apr 202527 saves on 31

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreDET 3.3, ANA 3.3DET 2, ANA 5
Total goals6.57
Shots on goalDET 29.5, ANA 28.8DET 30, ANA 32
Win chanceANA 50%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.560.81230%0
DET A. DeBrincat3.070.77229%1
DET D. Larkin2.930.94134%0
ANA M. McTavish2.520.78127%1
ANA T. Terry2.440.86330%2
ANA C. Kreider2.330.74137%1
ANA L. Carlsson2.220.85428%1
DET M. Seider2.220.5318%0
ANA F. Vatrano2.230.50023%0
DET L. Raymond2.130.78224%1
DET E. Finnie2.110.64022%0
ANA O. Zellweger2.010.3519%0
DET M. Kasper2.030.49022%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.910.65014%0
ANA A. Killorn1.810.57025%0
ANA B. Sennecke1.620.54022%0
ANA J. Trouba1.620.3417%0
ANA N. Nesterenko1.520.41017%0
DET B. Chiarot1.510.2307%0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka1.400.2205%0
ANA D. Helleson1.400.36110%0
DET J. Berggren1.420.39017%0
DET J. Riemsdyk1.310.44016%0
DET M. Appleton1.310.34012%0
DET J. Compher1.300.45017%0
DET T. Hamonic1.300.1704%0
DET A. Copp1.300.42015%0
DET S. Edvinsson1.310.37010%0
DET E. Soderblom1.220.33014%0
DET M. Rasmussen1.210.29013%0
ANA S. Colangelo1.110.33020%0
ANA R. Poehling1.010.38014%0
ANA I. Moore1.010.1904%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.000.3106%0
DET A. Johansson0.920.1604%0
ANA R. Johnston0.400.1505%0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.