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Game Recap
DET6
BUF5
DET beat BUF 6-5 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.45 expected goals to 2.34. DET outshot BUF 31 to 21. J. Zucker led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Cossa stopped 12 of 14.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| BUF | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
- 1st 1:38BUFZ. Benson0.02 xG
- 1st 4:05DETA. DeBrincat0.20 xG
- 1st 4:46DETA. Copp0.10 xG
- 1st 10:25BUFT. Thompson0.21 xG
- 1st 15:26BUFJ. Zucker0.03 xG
- 2nd 1:05DETL. Raymond0.13 xG
- 2nd 2:26BUFN. Aube-Kubel0.27 xG
- 2nd 9:46BUFJ. Zucker0.14 xG
- 3rd 10:27DETA. Copp0.19 xG
- 3rd 15:42DETM. Seider0.03 xG
Team Stats
DETBUF
31Shots on goal21
3.45Expected goals2.34
72Shot attempts47
225v5 shots on goal17
0/3Power play0/2
12Hits28
11Blocked shots20
8Penalty minutes10
9Giveaways14
2Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.45 xGBUF 2.34 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:39 | 3:41 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:23 | 3:42 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:40 | 2:14 |
| A. Copp | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:01 | 0:10 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 19:55 | 3:16 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 | 3:42 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 2:21 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:16 | 2:12 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 1:29 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:02 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 8:12 | 0:05 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 6:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 27:07 | 4:04 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:05 | 0:01 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:35 | 0:06 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:43 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 0:13 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Zucker | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 2:20 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 1:38 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:14 | 1:41 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:59 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:55 | 2:19 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:52 | 1:38 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:33 | 2:20 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 2:01 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 24:57 | 2:01 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 28:11 | 2:01 |
| R. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:50 | 0:02 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 18:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 31 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 64:47 | OT loss |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.9, BUF 3.4 | DET 6, BUF 5 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.4, BUF 32.2 | DET 31, BUF 21 |
| Win chance | BUF 58% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.6 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 | 41% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.8 | 5 | 0.95 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.7 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.6 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.6 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.6 | 4 | 0.74 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.3 | 4 | 0.73 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.3 | 4 | 0.60 | 3 | 23% | 2 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 3 | 0.92 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 3 | 0.51 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.5 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.48 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.0 | 3 | 0.35 | 2 | 13% | 2 |
| BUF R. Johnson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.4 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.