Game Recap: DET 1, OTT 2, December 5, 2024

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Game Recap

DET1

FinalThu, Dec 5, 2024Every game that night

OTT2

OTT beat DET 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.89 expected goals to 2.54. OTT outshot DET 32 to 20. J. Norris led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Norris had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Ullmark stopped 19 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	0	0	1	1
OTT	1	0	1	2

1st 12:14OTTJ. Norris0.13 xG
3rd 6:15DETA. DeBrincatPP0.11 xG
3rd 19:17OTTJ. Norris0.06 xG

Team Stats

DETOTT

20Shots on goal32

2.54Expected goals1.89

51Shot attempts58

175v5 shots on goal28

1/3Power play0/5

15Hits14

13Blocked shots13

12Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways13

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.54 xGOTT 1.89 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET19 on goal, 1 scored

OTT31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Compher	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:44	0:35
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	16:53	2:10
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	12:10	0:49
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	22:12	3:05
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	2	21:37	3:05
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:16	1:35
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:53	2:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	2	11:29	0:39
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:12	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	10:45	0:09
T. Motte	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:23	0:00
C. Fischer	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:09	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	2	26:12	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	25:00	1:05
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-2	2	24:53	2:14
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	17:52	0:49
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:04	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	9:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Husso	32	30	2	.938	59:22	Loss
S. Cossa	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Batherson	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	20:28	5:52
J. Norris	C	2	0	2	5	2	1	+2	2	18:53	5:38
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	3	2	2	+1	0	17:58	5:35
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	21:22	5:30
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:50	2:37
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	17:37	2:28
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:04	0:11
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:57	2:28
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	13:16	0:04
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:00	2:23
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	7:06	0:27
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	6:56	0:30
N. Jensen	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	20:34	0:11
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	23:49	5:32
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	2	21:19	3:04
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:36	0:18
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	16:19	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:41	0:27

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	20	19	1	.950	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlex DeBrincat DET Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20231 G, 1 SOG
Old teamJacob Bernard-Docker DET Faces OTT, his team until Dec 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.0, OTT 3.4	DET 1, OTT 2
Total goals	6.4	3
Shots on goal	DET 25.9, OTT 33.6	DET 20, OTT 32
Win chance	OTT 57%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.2	3	1.00	1	35%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.9	2	0.99	0	36%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.6	3	1.12	0	32%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.5	2	0.90	2	29%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.4	1	0.76	1	28%	1
DET P. Kane	2.3	3	0.76	0	24%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.3	1	0.62	0	13%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.2	5	0.73	2	34%	2
OTT C. Giroux	2.2	2	0.86	0	28%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.2	0	0.95	0	29%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	1	0.59	0	10%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	2	0.46	0	19%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.9	2	0.64	1	25%	0
DET M. Seider	1.7	2	0.61	0	10%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.7	2	0.26	0	13%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.6	0	0.38	0	20%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.5	0	0.23	0	7%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.5	0	0.35	0	13%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	2	0.38	0	19%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.3	0	0.35	0	17%	0
DET T. Motte	1.3	0	0.20	0	11%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.3	3	0.39	0	16%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.3	2	0.33	1	6%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	1	0.45	0	18%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.2	2	0.24	0	10%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	1	0.49	1	18%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	1	0.26	0	7%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.1	2	0.41	0	11%	0
DET A. Copp	1.0	2	0.39	0	14%	0
DET J. Petry	1.0	0	0.34	0	6%	0
DET C. Fischer	0.9	0	0.25	0	10%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.9	0	0.15	0	4%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	3	0.13	0	3%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	1	0.17	0	4%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	1	0.14	0	8%	0
DET J. Holl	0.4	0	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.