Game Recap: DET 5, OTT 3, January 5, 2026

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Game Recap

DET5

FinalMon, Jan 5, 2026Every game that night

OTT3

DET beat OTT 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.63 expected goals to 4.39. OTT outshot DET 37 to 21. J. van Riemsdyk led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Chabot had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Gibson stopped 34 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	3	1	1	5
OTT	0	2	1	3

1st 7:06DETA. Copp0.16 xG
1st 13:51DETD. LarkinPP0.52 xG
1st 19:43DETJ. van Riemsdyk0.12 xG
2nd 7:33OTTC. Giroux0.20 xG
2nd 14:10OTTD. CozensPP0.32 xG
2nd 15:42DETL. Raymond0.10 xG
3rd 6:55OTTB. Tkachuk0.15 xG
3rd 12:53DETM. RasmussenSH0.22 xG

Team Stats

DETOTT

21Shots on goal37

2.63Expected goals4.39

43Shot attempts69

165v5 shots on goal23

1/5Power play1/6

13Hits20

11Blocked shots12

12Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways18

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.63 xGOTT 4.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET21 on goal, 5 scored

OTT37 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	2	3	2	0	0	+2	0	12:44	3:43
A. Copp	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:59	4:01
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:13	4:01
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:09	3:56
J. Compher	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	15:07	0:00
L. Raymond	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	14:18	4:03
M. Rasmussen	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	2	14:05	0:05
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	15:48	0:06
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	14:31	4:10
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	13:36	4:25
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	2	11:37	0:07
J. Leonard	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:03	3:34
S. Edvinsson	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	2	23:20	2:04
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+2	2	15:45	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	14:59	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	24:44	4:24
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	20:17	0:13
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:32	2:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	37	34	3	.919	60:00	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	2	2	2	0	2	+2	0	24:42	6:29
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	19:20	6:22
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	2	19:01	6:27
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	4	3	0	-1	0	18:51	6:18
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	2	15:36	3:49
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	10:10	1:18
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	18:28	1:46
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	16:24	0:16
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	12:55	0:16
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	2	12:22	3:00
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:54	3:04
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:16	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	4	1	4	0	0	28:36	6:17
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:46	0:16
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	5	1	0	-3	0	20:38	3:10
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	19:23	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	2	13:25	0:16
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	12:45	0:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	9	6	3	.667	20:00
H. Shepard	12	10	2	.833	35:47	Loss

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1M. Appleton11:17M. Rasmussen10:20J. Leonard7:20

Line 2A. Copp10:23A. DeBrincat11:08P. Kane10:21

Line 3J. Riemsdyk9:01J. Compher8:48L. Raymond8:39

Line 4D. Larkin8:42M. Kasper9:32E. Finnie8:28

Pair 1M. Seider13:53S. Edvinsson14:27

Pair 2B. Chiarot14:39A. Sandin-Pellikka11:20

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker11:31A. Johansson10:36

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio11:43S. Pinto10:36R. Greig11:04

Line 2D. Batherson10:20B. Tkachuk10:28D. Cozens10:19

Line 3F. Zetterlund7:26T. Stützle11:26C. Giroux7:29

Line 4D. Perron8:04N. Cousins8:07S. Halliday6:30

Pair 1A. Zub13:26J. Sanderson13:37

Pair 2N. Jensen11:47T. Chabot14:10

Pair 3J. Spence12:33T. Kleven11:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJacob Bernard-Docker DET Faces OTT, his team until Dec 20241 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 2.9, OTT 3.2	DET 5, OTT 3
Total goals	6.0	8
Shots on goal	DET 25.3, OTT 28.4	DET 21, OTT 37
Win chance	OTT 55%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.7	2	0.79	1	31%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	2.9	2	0.80	1	31%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.6	1	0.90	1	34%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.4	2	1.01	2	31%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	4	0.68	1	23%	1
DET P. Kane	2.3	4	0.74	0	22%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	1	0.85	1	28%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.2	4	0.71	1	13%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.1	3	0.88	1	25%	1
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	1	0.63	0	26%	0
DET M. Seider	1.9	1	0.54	0	9%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.8	5	0.60	0	12%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.8	1	0.40	1	18%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.7	0	0.41	0	18%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.7	3	0.68	1	22%	1
OTT R. Greig	1.5	2	0.40	0	16%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.5	3	0.52	0	21%	0
DET A. Copp	1.4	2	0.48	1	16%	1
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	1	0.44	0	20%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.4	2	0.41	3	17%	1
DET M. Kasper	1.2	1	0.25	0	12%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	1	0.34	1	14%	1
DET S. Edvinsson	1.2	1	0.36	1	9%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.2	1	0.31	0	11%	0
DET J. Leonard	1.1	1	0.23	0	12%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.1	1	0.20	0	6%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.1	2	0.36	1	5%	0
DET J. Compher	1.0	0	0.35	1	14%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	2	0.17	0	3%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	1	0.28	0	6%	0
OTT S. Halliday	0.9	1	0.33	0	7%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.9	0	0.23	0	10%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.8	0	0.25	0	5%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	2	0.23	0	4%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	0	0.13	1	3%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.6	0	0.13	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.