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Game Recap
DET1
PHI4
PHI beat DET 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.00 expected goals to 2.30. PHI outshot DET 36 to 26. S. Laughton scored 4 for PHI. S. Laughton had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Kolosov stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
- 2nd 13:22PHIS. Laughton0.13 xG
- 3rd 1:31PHIS. LaughtonSH0.14 xG
- 3rd 16:07DETB. Chiarot0.04 xG
- 3rd 18:53PHIS. LaughtonEN0.86 xG
- 3rd 19:47PHIS. LaughtonEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
DETPHI
26Shots on goal36
2.30Expected goals4.00
52Shot attempts58
265v5 shots on goal32
0/1Power play0/1
16Hits12
12Blocked shots19
2Penalty minutes2
19Giveaways15
7Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.30 xGPHI 4.00 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:29 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:30 | 1:33 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:16 | 1:34 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:32 | 1:27 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:51 | 1:31 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:29 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:26 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:27 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:04 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 26:34 | 1:19 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 22:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:41 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Laughton | C | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:18 | 1:30 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:11 | 1:30 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:30 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:14 | 1:29 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:30 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:30 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:30 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 1:30 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 21:01 | 0:01 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:30 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:02 | 1:30 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kolosov | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Ersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.0, PHI 3.2 | DET 1, PHI 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DET 25.1, PHI 32.2 | DET 26, PHI 36 |
| Win chance | PHI 53% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI T. Konecny | 3.1 | 1 | 1.05 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.8 | 1 | 1.01 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.7 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.5 | 3 | 0.79 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.5 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 2.3 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.2 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 1 | 0.99 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 2.0 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.9 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.7 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.7 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.6 | 9 | 0.40 | 4 | 14% | 4 |
| PHI C. York | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.8 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.8 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.