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Game Recap
DET1
PHI2
PHI beat DET 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.27 expected goals to 1.78. J. Farabee led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Larkin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Ersson stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 5:21PHIJ. Farabee0.14 xG
- 3rd 0:30DETB. Chiarot0.10 xG
- OT 4:34PHIR. Ristolainen0.37 xG
Team Stats
DETPHI
28Shots on goal26
1.78Expected goals3.27
59Shot attempts57
275v5 shots on goal21
0/0Power play0/1
13Hits15
15Blocked shots16
2Penalty minutes0
14Giveaways13
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 1.78 xGPHI 3.27 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:13 | 0:00 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 27:20 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Farabee | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:31 | 1:17 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:19 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:06 | 1:33 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 1:18 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:27 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:43 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:42 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| O. Lycksell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:41 | 0:41 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:28 | 0:39 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:10 | 1:21 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 64:34 | Win |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.0, PHI 3.1 | DET 1, PHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | DET 24.1, PHI 29.4 | DET 28, PHI 26 |
| Win chance | PHI 52% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.0 | 0 | 0.72 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 1 | 1.01 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.4 | 6 | 0.88 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.4 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.2 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 2.0 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.9 | 4 | 0.66 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.8 | 2 | 0.87 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.8 | 1 | 0.46 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.7 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.7 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.6 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.6 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.5 | 4 | 0.30 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI O. Lycksell | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.1 | 4 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.8 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.