Game Recap: DET 3, PIT 4 (OT), January 1, 2026

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Game Recap

DET3

Final/OTThu, Jan 1, 2026Every game that night

PIT4

PIT beat DET 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.59 expected goals to 2.96. S. Crosby led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Rasmussen had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Silovs stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DET	1	1	1	0	3
PIT	2	0	1	1	4

1st 4:08PITS. CrosbyPP0.04 xG
1st 5:46PITS. Crosby0.19 xG
1st 17:46DETJ. van RiemsdykPP0.10 xG
2nd 1:01DETA. Copp0.18 xG
3rd 15:51PITB. Lizotte0.06 xG
3rd 17:02DETA. DeBrincatPP0.65 xG
OT 0:58PITK. Letang0.18 xG

Team Stats

DETPIT

27Shots on goal31

2.96Expected goals2.59

68Shot attempts63

165v5 shots on goal22

2/8Power play1/3

21Hits15

17Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes16

9Giveaways11

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.96 xGPIT 2.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET27 on goal, 3 scored

PIT28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	23:32	9:01
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	4	21:58	8:59
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	17:08	6:47
A. Copp	C	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	16:46	4:32
P. Kane	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	15:41	6:15
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	10:01	4:28
M. Kasper	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	9:06	0:43
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:21	6:42
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:41	0:16
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	6	1	0	-1	0	15:39	0:13
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	15:02	0:13
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11:44	6:02
S. Edvinsson	D	0	1	1	3	1	4	-2	0	22:24	2:22
B. Chiarot	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	-1	0	19:54	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	26:10	8:21
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:12	0:15
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:43	3:51
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	11:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	31	27	4	.871	60:46	OT loss
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	2	1	3	4	0	0	+2	2	18:27	3:17
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	2	20:56	2:54
B. Lizotte	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	2	14:29	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	11:42	2:52
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	18:10	3:19
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	16:27	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	0	16:02	0:00
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:07	0:39
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11:07	0:56
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	11:06	1:03
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	4	10:53	0:35
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:44	0:03
E. Karlsson	D	0	2	2	1	1	2	0	0	22:34	3:13
K. Letang	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	22:16	0:45
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	2	19:23	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	2	20:08	0:09
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	17:21	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	15:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	27	24	3	.889	60:58	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1M. Appleton13:52M. Rasmussen13:55J. Compher14:49

Line 2D. Larkin12:18L. Raymond12:13E. Finnie10:21

Line 3P. Kane9:26A. DeBrincat9:28A. Copp10:04

Line 4J. Riemsdyk5:33N. Danielson5:42M. Kasper7:15

Pair 1S. Edvinsson17:02M. Seider15:15

Pair 2B. Chiarot17:38A. Sandin-Pellikka8:52

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker11:09A. Johansson13:08

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby14:48R. Rakell14:12B. Rust13:12

Line 2J. Brazeau10:11T. Novak9:51A. Mantha8:50

Line 3R. McGroarty8:01B. Kindel10:01E. Chinakhov9:51

Line 4N. Acciari9:32C. Dewar7:56B. Lizotte8:08

Pair 1K. Letang18:23B. Kulak16:41

Pair 2P. Wotherspoon13:57E. Karlsson12:38

Pair 3R. Shea11:41J. Ivany10:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJohn Gibson DET Plays in his hometown0 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 2.9, PIT 3.3	DET 3, PIT 4
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	DET 27.0, PIT 29.1	DET 27, PIT 31
Win chance	PIT 56%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	3	0.81	1	31%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.8	0	0.90	1	33%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.6	2	0.90	1	33%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.6	4	1.12	3	37%	2
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	4	0.80	0	30%	0
DET P. Kane	2.4	4	0.76	1	22%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.2	2	0.88	1	25%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	1	0.74	2	15%	0
DET M. Seider	2.0	1	0.55	0	9%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.0	1	0.40	0	18%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.9	1	0.43	0	18%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.8	2	0.48	1	10%	1
PIT A. Mantha	1.8	1	0.69	1	26%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.7	2	0.59	0	22%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.6	0	0.31	0	14%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.5	2	0.42	1	17%	1
PIT J. Brazeau	1.5	3	0.50	0	22%	0
DET A. Copp	1.5	2	0.47	1	15%	1
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	2	0.32	0	14%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.4	1	0.34	0	15%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.3	0	0.25	1	12%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.3	3	0.38	1	10%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	0	0.20	1	6%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.2	3	0.24	0	6%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.2	0	0.30	0	11%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	6	0.34	0	14%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	1	0.36	1	16%	1
DET J. Compher	1.1	1	0.35	0	14%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.1	0	0.25	0	9%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	2	0.24	0	12%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	1	0.26	1	4%	0
PIT J. Ivany	1.0	1	0.16	0	3%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.9	0	0.27	0	6%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.8	0	0.15	0	4%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.28	0	6%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	2	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.