Game Recap: DET 1, PIT 5, March 31, 2026

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Game Recap

DET1

FinalTue, Mar 31, 2026Every game that night

PIT5

PIT beat DET 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.57 expected goals to 2.74. PIT outshot DET 32 to 23. E. Chinakhov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Malkin had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. S. Skinner stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	0	1	0	1
PIT	3	1	1	5

1st 4:10PITR. Rakell0.06 xG
1st 8:34PITA. Mantha0.28 xG
1st 18:02PITE. Chinakhov0.07 xG
2nd 3:17DETD. LarkinPP0.32 xG
2nd 12:23PITJ. Brazeau0.06 xG
3rd 12:09PITN. Acciari0.18 xG

Team Stats

DETPIT

23Shots on goal32

2.74Expected goals4.57

57Shot attempts66

195v5 shots on goal24

1/1Power play0/3

32Hits18

13Blocked shots13

11Penalty minutes9

17Giveaways13

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.74 xGPIT 4.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET23 on goal, 1 scored

PIT32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kane	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	17:41	0:05
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	2	5	0	-1	2	14:10	0:05
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	18:26	0:05
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	17:34	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	16:33	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	13:57	0:00
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-3	2	13:54	0:05
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:48	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:26	0:00
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:12	0:00
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	12:17	0:00
C. Mazur	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:54	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-2	0	22:40	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	-2	0	22:09	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-3	0	21:51	0:05
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-2	2	19:29	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:14	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	14:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	14	11	3	.786	20:00	Loss
C. Talbot	18	16	2	.889	39:58

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+2	0	17:05	1:53
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	1	4	1	+1	0	18:10	3:58
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	18:02	3:58
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	17:32	3:58
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	4	1	3	+1	2	17:09	2:55
E. Soderblom	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:42	0:09
N. Acciari	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	14:32	0:09
C. Dewar	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	5	13:57	0:09
J. Brazeau	RW	1	0	1	2	3	1	+2	0	11:43	1:43
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:05	1:53
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	14:12	1:53
A. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	9:40	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	19:19	1:53
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+3	0	17:20	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+3	0	17:10	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	+1	0	22:48	4:07
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	20:31	0:09
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	17:58	0:38

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1P. Kane16:55A. DeBrincat17:26A. Copp15:47

Line 2J. Riemsdyk13:26M. Appleton14:22M. Kasper13:21

Line 3D. Perron12:17J. Compher11:59L. Raymond13:36

Line 4D. Larkin11:45E. Finnie9:25C. Mazur6:54

Pair 1M. Seider20:22S. Edvinsson20:26

Pair 2B. Chiarot17:28J. Faulk18:54

Pair 3A. Johansson15:34J. Bernard-Docker12:33

PIT

Line 1N. Acciari13:56E. Soderblom14:33C. Dewar13:21

Line 2S. Crosby13:33R. Rakell13:40E. Chinakhov14:37

Line 3E. Malkin13:06A. Mantha14:14T. Novak14:12

Line 4J. Brazeau10:00B. Kindel12:19A. Hayes9:40

Pair 1P. Wotherspoon19:41E. Karlsson17:58

Pair 2C. Clifton17:03R. Shea16:31

Pair 3K. Letang16:46S. Girard17:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJohn Gibson DET Plays in his hometown11 saves on 14

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.1, PIT 3.1	DET 1, PIT 5
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	DET 26.9, PIT 28.3	DET 23, PIT 32
Win chance	PIT 51%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.7	4	1.08	0	38%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.9	2	0.89	1	34%	1
DET P. Kane	2.7	2	0.93	1	27%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.6	2	0.78	1	29%	1
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.5	1	0.58	2	24%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	4	0.73	0	15%	0
DET M. Seider	2.3	2	0.70	0	11%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.3	1	0.99	0	29%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.3	5	0.80	1	25%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.2	1	0.92	1	30%	0
PIT A. Mantha	2.0	4	0.74	1	28%	1
PIT B. Kindel	1.9	0	0.42	0	18%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.7	1	0.35	0	16%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	1	0.51	0	21%	0
DET A. Copp	1.6	2	0.59	0	18%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.6	2	0.45	0	10%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.5	0	0.41	1	9%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.5	0	0.36	0	16%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	2	0.35	1	15%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.5	2	0.40	1	17%	1
PIT A. Hayes	1.5	0	0.25	0	14%	0
DET J. Compher	1.4	1	0.48	0	19%	0
DET D. Perron	1.3	1	0.44	0	19%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.3	4	0.25	1	12%	1
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	2	0.19	0	6%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.2	0	0.36	0	11%	0
PIT E. Soderblom	1.2	2	0.23	1	12%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.2	0	0.39	0	15%	0
PIT S. Girard	0.9	1	0.29	0	5%	0
DET M. Appleton	0.9	1	0.24	0	9%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	3	0.30	0	3%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.8	0	0.19	1	4%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.27	1	6%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.6	2	0.12	0	4%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.6	0	0.12	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.