TBL beat DET 5-1, with the chances close: 2.87 expected goals to 2.60. DET outshot TBL 39 to 22. N. Kucherov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Seider had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 38 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TBL | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
- 1st 2:02TBLB. Point0.28 xG
- 2nd 0:16TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.29 xG
- 2nd 1:50TBLN. Kucherov0.19 xG
- 2nd 3:58TBLM. Chaffee0.16 xG
- 2nd 14:12DETL. RaymondPP0.15 xG
- 2nd 15:06TBLD. RaddyshPP0.06 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.60 xGTBL 2.87 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 6:37 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:35 | 7:02 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:44 | 7:11 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:48 | 7:00 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 | 4:40 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 5:01 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 3:53 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:56 | 4:32 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:13 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:13 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:13 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 12:06 | 0:47 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:21 | 7:25 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:49 | 4:06 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:23 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:24 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:56 | 0:46 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:44 | 2:11 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:46 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:09 | 1:12 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 9:44 | 0:46 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:33 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:40 | 1:25 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:20 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:25 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:20 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:20 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:05 | 1:06 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 22:53 | 1:25 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 39 | 38 | 1 | .974 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.9, TBL 3.7 | DET 1, TBL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.4, TBL 30.6 | DET 39, TBL 22 |
| Win chance | TBL 61% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.5 | 2 | 1.77 | 3 | 39% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 1 | 1.06 | 3 | 38% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.7 | 3 | 1.09 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.6 | 2 | 1.23 | 1 | 45% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.6 | 5 | 0.83 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.6 | 5 | 0.73 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.4 | 0 | 0.94 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.4 | 4 | 0.77 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.0 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.9 | 3 | 0.80 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 5 | 0.53 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.5 | 4 | 0.47 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.9 | 4 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.