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Game Recap
DET1
TOR3
TOR beat DET 3-1, with the chances close: 2.67 expected goals to 2.00. J. Tavares led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Stolarz stopped 21 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 11:12TORM. MarnerPP0.41 xG
- 2nd 9:10DETD. LarkinPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 11:01TORJ. TavaresPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 18:30TORJ. TavaresEN0.66 xG
Team Stats
DETTOR
22Shots on goal20
2.00Expected goals2.67
54Shot attempts50
175v5 shots on goal15
1/3Power play2/2
14Hits23
18Blocked shots20
2Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways17
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.00 xGTOR 2.67 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:36 | 3:54 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:20 | 3:54 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:02 | 3:53 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:36 | 3:52 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 1:21 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 | 1:23 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:44 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 1:18 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:25 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:27 | 3:57 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:27 | 1:15 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:16 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:03 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 | 1:14 |
| J. Tavares | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:37 | 1:14 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 1:14 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:58 | 1:14 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:58 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 1:14 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:27 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.0, TOR 3.9 | DET 1, TOR 3 |
| Total goals | 6.9 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.4, TOR 35.2 | DET 22, TOR 20 |
| Win chance | TOR 64% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.5 | 2 | 1.07 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.4 | 4 | 0.84 | 2 | 31% | 2 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.8 | 4 | 0.87 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.5 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.4 | 3 | 1.23 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.3 | 4 | 0.75 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 2.3 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 2.2 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 2.1 | 0 | 0.73 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.9 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.8 | 0 | 0.76 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.7 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.4 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 1.0 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR R. Reaves | 0.5 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.