TOR beat DET 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.80 expected goals to 2.10. DET outshot TOR 34 to 20. J. Holl led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Kasper had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Woll stopped 31 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 17:53TORA. Matthews0.21 xG
- 1st 19:19DETA. Watson0.15 xG
- 2nd 2:16DETJ. Holl0.01 xG
- 2nd 5:50DETA. DeBrincatPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 3:43TORP. Myers0.14 xG
- 3rd 19:58TORC. Tanev0.16 xG
- OT 0:56TORS. Laughton0.62 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.10 xGTOR 2.80 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:44 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:54 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:37 | 0:10 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:10 |
| A. Watson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:44 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:44 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:10 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:35 | 0:44 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 24:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:00 |
| W. Lagesson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:22 | 0:10 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:36 | 1:10 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 14:19 | 1:10 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 1:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:36 | 1:10 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:28 | 1:10 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16:22 | 1:10 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 1:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:56 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:20 | 1:00 |
| D. Mermis | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| P. Myers | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:04 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:16 | 1:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:44 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 34 | 31 | 3 | .912 | 59:18 | Win |
| A. Stolarz | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.9, TOR 3.6 | DET 3, TOR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DET 27.6, TOR 28.7 | DET 34, TOR 20 |
| Win chance | TOR 61% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.0 | 1 | 1.27 | 1 | 47% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 2.9 | 0 | 1.03 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.8 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.6 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 0 | 1.28 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 2.2 | 0 | 0.76 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 2.0 | 6 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.7 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.5 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.4 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.3 | 3 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.1 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.1 | 4 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR D. Mermis | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.8 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| DET A. Watson | 0.7 | 4 | 0.13 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| DET W. Lagesson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.6 | 4 | 0.12 | 2 | 2% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 13 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.