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Game Recap
DET2
TOR1
DET beat TOR 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.58 expected goals to 4.46. DET outshot TOR 41 to 31. D. Larkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Chiarot had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Gibson stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 4:46TORS. Laughton0.38 xG
- 1st 19:42DETS. Edvinsson0.20 xG
- OT 3:08DETD. Larkin0.31 xG
Team Stats
DETTOR
41Shots on goal31
3.58Expected goals4.46
76Shot attempts60
325v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play0/2
15Hits22
12Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways15
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.58 xGTOR 4.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:17 | 1:44 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:47 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 2:05 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:50 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 2:08 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:53 | 2:02 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:08 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:08 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:20 | 2:09 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:08 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:48 | 1:43 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 27:46 | 1:58 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:45 | 0:49 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:49 | 0:08 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:08 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:55 | 1:05 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Laughton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:39 | 3:03 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 3:04 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:45 | 3:05 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 3:07 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:47 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:53 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:55 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| E. Cowan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:59 | 0:57 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 28:09 | 1:29 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:32 | 2:31 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:56 | 0:09 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 41 | 39 | 2 | .951 | 63:08 | OT loss |
| D. Hildeby | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1D. Larkin14:57L. Raymond14:54M. Kasper14:03
Line 2P. Kane14:49A. DeBrincat14:55A. Copp15:01
Line 3M. Appleton13:05E. Soderblom12:59M. Rasmussen12:54
Line 4J. Riemsdyk10:05E. Finnie8:58J. Compher9:13
Pair 1M. Seider23:34S. Edvinsson23:42
Pair 2B. Chiarot19:12J. Bernard-Docker13:58
Pair 3A. Johansson14:51A. Sandin-Pellikka8:50
TOR
Line 1M. Domi13:40A. Matthews16:31B. McMann13:41
Line 2M. Maccelli15:24M. Knies13:36J. Tavares13:22
Line 3S. Laughton13:22S. Lorentz12:11C. Jarnkrok10:29
Line 4N. Roy11:07E. Cowan10:50N. Robertson11:31
Pair 1T. Stecher22:41S. Benoit17:26
Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson1:50J. McCabe23:02
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.3, TOR 3.5 | DET 2, TOR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | DET 29.1, TOR 27.7 | DET 41, TOR 31 |
| Win chance | TOR 53% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.8 | 5 | 1.14 | 0 | 45% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.4 | 6 | 0.86 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 5 | 0.78 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.5 | 4 | 0.87 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.5 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.9 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.8 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR M. Maccelli | 1.7 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.6 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR E. Cowan | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 5 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR N. Roy | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR T. Stecher | 1.1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.8 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.