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Game Recap
DET5
UTA1
DET beat UTA 5-1, with the chances close: 2.22 expected goals to 2.10. A. DeBrincat led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Lyon stopped 17 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| UTA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 3:46UTAD. GuentherPP0.14 xG
- 1st 5:08DETE. Soderblom0.07 xG
- 2nd 1:34DETM. Kasper0.48 xG
- 3rd 9:51DETA. Watson0.04 xG
- 3rd 17:06DETA. DeBrincatEN0.29 xG
- 3rd 18:32DETT. Motte0.80 xG
Team Stats
DETUTA
14Shots on goal19
2.22Expected goals2.10
36Shot attempts62
115v5 shots on goal17
0/1Power play1/5
32Hits26
25Blocked shots15
10Penalty minutes2
22Giveaways22
5Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.22 xGUTA 2.10 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 14:31 | 1:06 |
| M. Kasper | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:49 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:17 | 1:06 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:11 | 0:50 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:53 |
| T. Motte | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 10:04 | 0:01 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:02 |
| A. Watson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 6:07 | 0:00 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:33 | 1:06 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:52 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:04 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 | 1:06 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:47 | 0:54 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 24:05 | 1:11 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:17 | 7:17 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 | 7:02 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:27 | 6:58 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:11 | 7:07 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15:03 | 2:02 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:39 | 2:01 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:24 | 1:44 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 1:51 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:17 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:02 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:04 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:56 | 7:23 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 20:15 | 0:11 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:40 | 1:40 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:06 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 13 | 9 | 4 | .692 | 59:43 | Loss |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.2, UTA 3.5 | DET 5, UTA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | DET 27.8, UTA 29.7 | DET 14, UTA 19 |
| Win chance | UTA 55% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.7 | 3 | 0.80 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 2 | 0.76 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 2 | 1.07 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.4 | 0 | 0.80 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.1 | 0 | 0.83 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 4 | 0.88 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.9 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.7 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.7 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| DET J. Petry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Watson | 0.7 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.